Upside case
Bull case
$279+36.1%
BWXT would need investors to value it at roughly 59x earnings — about 16x more generous than today's 44x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
16
analysts
10 bullish · 1 bearish · 16 covering BWXT
Strong Buy
0
Buy
10
Hold
5
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$225
+9.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$134 – $279
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
16
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
43.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $18.8B
BWXT price targets
Three scenarios for where BWXT stock could go
Current
~$205
Confidence
53 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $205
Bear
$134
Base
$212
Bull
$279
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$212+3.3%
This is close to how the market is already pricing BWXT — at roughly 45x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$134-34.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 15x multiple contraction could push BWXT down roughly 35% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
BWX Technologies, Inc.
BWXT · NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseDecember year-end
BWX Technologies is a specialized nuclear components manufacturer that primarily serves U.S. government defense programs and commercial nuclear power plants. It generates revenue through three main segments: Nuclear Operations Group (~70% of revenue) supplying naval nuclear propulsion systems, Nuclear Power Group (~20%) providing commercial nuclear components, and Nuclear Services Group (~10%) offering nuclear fuel and waste management services. The company's key moat is its exclusive position as the sole manufacturer of naval nuclear reactors for the U.S. Navy—a highly regulated, security-sensitive market with massive barriers to entry.
Market Cap
$18.8B
Revenue TTM
$3.4B
Net Income TTM
$345M
Net Margin
10.2%
BWXT Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+14.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.02/$0.79
Revenue
$764M/$794M
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.00/$0.85
Revenue
$866M/$793M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.08/$0.89
Revenue
$886M/$838M
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.12/$0.92
Revenue
$860M/$837M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.02/$0.79 | +29.1% | $764M/$794M | -3.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.00/$0.85 | +17.2% | $866M/$793M | +9.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.08/$0.89 | +21.2% | $886M/$838M | +5.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.12/$0.92 | +21.7% | $860M/$837M | +2.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.7B
+10.0% YoY
FY2
$4.1B
+10.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.27
+13.9% YoY
FY2
$4.71
+10.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$328M
FCF Margin: 9.7%
Next Earnings
August 3, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.02
Expected Revenue
$906M
BWXT beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
BWXT Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $3.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Government Operations Segment
73.4%
+7.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
75.9%
+9.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Government Operations Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 73.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 7.7% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 75.9%, up 9.0% YoY.
BWXT Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $67 — implies -67.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
67.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BWXT
57.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+134% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
BWXT
57.2x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+124% premium
vs BWXT 5Y Avg P/E
Today
57.2x
vs
5Y Average
30.0x
+90% premium
Forward PE
43.7x
S&P 500
18.8x
+132%
Industrials
21.2x
+106%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
57.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
+134%
Industrials
25.6x
+124%
5Y Avg
30.0x
+90%
PEG Ratio
13.34x
S&P 500
1.66x
+704%
Industrials
1.65x
+709%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
47.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
+209%
Industrials
13.9x
+238%
5Y Avg
22.2x
+111%
Price/FCF
63.7x
S&P 500
20.7x
+208%
Industrials
20.0x
+218%
5Y Avg
60.5x
+5%
Price/Sales
5.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+90%
Industrials
1.6x
+277%
5Y Avg
3.2x
+83%
Dividend Yield
0.49%
S&P 500
1.91%
-74%
Industrials
1.21%
-60%
5Y Avg
1.19%
-59%
| Metric | BWXT | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg BWXT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 43.7x | 18.8x+132% | 21.2x+106% | — |
| Trailing PE | 57.2x | 24.4x+134% | 25.6x+124% | 30.0x+90% |
| PEG Ratio | 13.34x | 1.66x+704% | 1.65x+709% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 47.0x | 15.2x+209% | 13.9x+238% | 22.2x+111% |
| Price/FCF | 63.7x | 20.7x+208% | 20.0x+218% | 60.5x |
| Price/Sales | 5.9x | 3.1x+90% | 1.6x+277% | 3.2x+83% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.49% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 1.19% |
BWXT trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBWXT Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
BWXT generates $328M in free cash flow at a 9.7% margin — 10.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+21.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
16.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
10.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.75
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$328M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
10.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$503M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.6× FCF
~4.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
27.9%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (10.1%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.6%
Dividend
0.5%
Buyback
0.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$30M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.01
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
28.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
92M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageBWXT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
Valuation de-rating
BWXT's stock is trading 23.2% below its spring high as investors reassess its premium aerospace-and-defense valuation.
Medium
Government spending reliance
BWXT's growth is heavily dependent on sustained U.S. government spending on naval nuclear propulsion, which could be volatile.
Lower
Momentum reset
The stock has experienced a momentum reset, potentially indicating reduced investor confidence in the near term.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BWXT Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Specialized nuclear technology focus
BWX Technologies is a specialized nuclear technology and services company focused on naval nuclear reactors, nuclear fuel, and commercial nuclear maintenance, positioning it as a critical player in defense, space, and clean-energy infrastructure.
Long-term government contracts
The company operates under high regulatory oversight with long-term government contracts, providing durable earnings and strong cash flow support.
High barriers to entry
BWXT's specialized nuclear technology and regulatory oversight create high barriers to entry, ensuring a competitive advantage in its markets.
Strategic critical nuclear franchise
BWXT is a high-quality, strategically critical nuclear franchise with exceptional long-term demand visibility, particularly in Navy propulsion and NNSA businesses.
Defense and clean-energy positioning
The company's focus on naval nuclear reactors and clean-energy infrastructure positions it as a key player in both defense and sustainable energy sectors.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BWXT Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$205.40
52W Range Position
66%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$133.84
+53.5% from the low
52-Week High
$241.82
-15.1% from the high
1 Month
+1.71%
3 Month
-1.71%
YTD
+13.0%
1 Year
+46.2%
3Y CAGR
+44.0%
5Y CAGR
+28.2%
10Y CAGR
+19.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BWXT vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
43.7x
vs 16.5x median
+165% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+10.0%
vs +5.4% median
+86% above peer median
Net Margin
10.2%
vs 7.8% median
+31% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BWX BWXT BWX Technologies, Inc. | $18.8B | 43.7x | +10.0% | 10.2% | Buy | +9.5% |
CW CW Curtiss-Wright Corporation | $28.5B | 50.7x | +9.5% | 14.2% | Buy | -4.0% |
LDO LDOS Leidos Holdings, Inc. | $13.5B | 9.0x | +3.4% | 7.8% | Buy | +66.6% |
CAC CACI CACI International Inc | $10.3B | 16.5x | +7.5% | 5.9% | Buy | +48.0% |
HII HII Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. | $11.2B | 16.5x | +4.4% | 4.7% | Hold | +47.1% |
GD GD General Dynamics Corporation | $94.7B | 21.0x | +5.4% | 8.1% | Buy | +17.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BWXT Dividend and Capital Return
BWXT returns 0.6% total yield, led by a 0.49% dividend, raised 10 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.2%
Dividend Yield
0.49%
Payout Ratio
28.0%
How BWXT Splits Its Return
Div 0.49%
Buyback 0.2%
Dividend 0.49%Buybacks 0.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.01
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
10Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.4%
5Y Div CAGR
5.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$30M
Estimated Shares Retired
146.1K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
92M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.54 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.00 | +4.2% | 0.2% | 0.8% |
| 2024 | $0.96 | +4.3% | 0.2% | 1.1% |
| 2023 | $0.92 | +4.5% | 0.1% | 1.3% |
| 2022 | $0.88 | +4.8% | 0.4% | 1.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsBWXT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 16 analysts covering the stock, 10 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $225, implying +9.5% from the current price of $205. The bear case scenario is $134 and the bull case is $279.
02What is the BWXT stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BWXT is $225 based on 16 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $255 (+24.1% from today), and the low-end target is $205 (-0.2%). The base case model target is $212.
03Is BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) stock overvalued in 2026?
BWXT trades at 43.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BWXT in 2026 are: (1) Valuation de-rating — BWXT's stock is trading 23. (2) Government spending reliance — BWXT's growth is heavily dependent on sustained U. (3) Momentum reset — The stock has experienced a momentum reset, potentially indicating reduced investor confidence in the near term. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is BWX Technologies, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BWXT will report consensus revenue of $3.7B (+10.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.27 (+13.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.1B in revenue.
06When does BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) report its next earnings?
BWX Technologies, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-03. Consensus expects EPS of $1.02 and revenue of $906M. Over recent quarters, BWXT has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does BWX Technologies, Inc. generate?
BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) generated $328M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.7%. BWXT returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.5% yield) and share repurchases ($30M TTM).