Upside case
Bull case
$403+87.1%
BWXT would need investors to value it at roughly 87x earnings — about 41x more generous than today's 47x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
16
analysts
9 bullish · 1 bearish · 16 covering BWXT
Strong Buy
0
Buy
9
Hold
6
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$210
-2.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$169 – $403
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
16
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
46.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $19.7B
BWXT price targets
Three scenarios for where BWXT stock could go
Current
~$215
Confidence
78 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $215
Bear
$169
Base
$301
Bull
$403
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$301+40.0%
At 65x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$169-21.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 10x multiple contraction could push BWXT down roughly 22% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
BWX Technologies, Inc.
BWXT · NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseDecember year-end
BWX Technologies is a specialized nuclear components manufacturer that primarily serves U.S. government defense programs and commercial nuclear power plants. It generates revenue through three main segments: Nuclear Operations Group (~70% of revenue) supplying naval nuclear propulsion systems, Nuclear Power Group (~20%) providing commercial nuclear components, and Nuclear Services Group (~10%) offering nuclear fuel and waste management services. The company's key moat is its exclusive position as the sole manufacturer of naval nuclear reactors for the U.S. Navy—a highly regulated, security-sensitive market with massive barriers to entry.
Market Cap
$19.7B
Revenue TTM
$3.4B
Net Income TTM
$345M
Net Margin
10.2%
BWXT Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+14.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.02/$0.79
Revenue
$764M/$794M
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.00/$0.85
Revenue
$866M/$793M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.08/$0.89
Revenue
$886M/$838M
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.12/$0.92
Revenue
$860M/$837M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.02/$0.79 | +29.1% | $764M/$794M | -3.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.00/$0.85 | +17.2% | $866M/$793M | +9.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.08/$0.89 | +21.2% | $886M/$838M | +5.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.12/$0.92 | +21.7% | $860M/$837M | +2.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.8B
+13.5% YoY
FY2
$4.4B
+13.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.41
+17.7% YoY
FY2
$5.03
+13.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$328M
FCF Margin: 9.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
BWXT beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
BWXT Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $3.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Government Operations Segment
73.4%
+7.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
75.9%
+9.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Government Operations Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 73.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 7.7% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 75.9%, up 9.0% YoY.
BWXT Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $110 — implies -49.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
49.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BWXT
59.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+138% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
BWXT
59.9x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
+131% premium
vs BWXT 5Y Avg P/E
Today
59.9x
vs
5Y Average
30.0x
+100% premium
Forward PE
46.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
+145%
Industrials
20.8x
+124%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
59.9x
S&P 500
25.2x
+138%
Industrials
25.9x
+131%
5Y Avg
30.0x
+100%
PEG Ratio
13.97x
S&P 500
1.74x
+702%
Industrials
1.64x
+753%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
49.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
+223%
Industrials
13.7x
+259%
5Y Avg
22.2x
+121%
Price/FCF
66.8x
S&P 500
21.3x
+214%
Industrials
21.0x
+218%
5Y Avg
60.5x
+10%
Price/Sales
6.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+97%
Industrials
1.6x
+285%
5Y Avg
3.2x
+92%
Dividend Yield
0.47%
S&P 500
1.87%
-75%
Industrials
1.25%
-62%
5Y Avg
1.19%
-61%
| Metric | BWXT | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg BWXT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 46.7x | 19.1x+145% | 20.8x+124% | — |
| Trailing PE | 59.9x | 25.2x+138% | 25.9x+131% | 30.0x+100% |
| PEG Ratio | 13.97x | 1.74x+702% | 1.64x+753% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 49.1x | 15.2x+223% | 13.7x+259% | 22.2x+121% |
| Price/FCF | 66.8x | 21.3x+214% | 21.0x+218% | 60.5x+10% |
| Price/Sales | 6.2x | 3.1x+97% | 1.6x+285% | 3.2x+92% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.47% | 1.87% | 1.25% | 1.19% |
BWXT trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBWXT Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
BWXT generates $328M in free cash flow at a 9.7% margin — 10.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+21.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
16.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
10.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.75
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$328M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
10.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$503M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.6× FCF
~4.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
27.9%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (10.1%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.6%
Dividend
0.5%
Buyback
0.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$30M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.01
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
28.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
92M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageBWXT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Government Funding Dependence
Approximately 75% of BWXT's revenue comes from the U.S. government, making the company vulnerable to federal budget constraints, debt ceiling issues, and potential government shutdowns. These factors can delay funding and disrupt operations, significantly impacting financial performance.
High Risk
Nuclear Operations Risks
BWXT's nuclear operations are subject to significant environmental, regulatory, and financial risks, including potential liabilities related to environmental and human health impacts. The handling and disposal of radioactive materials also pose serious risks that could lead to substantial financial repercussions.
High Risk
Regulatory Compliance Risks
Non-compliance with safety and quality requirements imposed by regulatory agencies like the NRC and CNSC could lead to increased oversight, fines, or operational shutdowns. Such outcomes could severely affect BWXT's operational capabilities and financial results.
Medium
Supply Chain Vulnerability
BWXT relies on a limited number of suppliers for critical materials, making it vulnerable to disruptions from geopolitical tensions, trade barriers, and currency fluctuations. These supply chain issues could lead to increased costs and project delays.
Medium
Labor Shortages
The company is currently facing supply-chain issues and a shortage of skilled workers, which could affect project timelines and increase operational costs. This labor shortage could hinder BWXT's ability to meet demand and execute projects efficiently.
Medium
Debt Management
While BWXT manages its debt reasonably well, its net debt to EBITDA ratio indicates that ongoing monitoring is warranted due to potential future balance sheet risks. Any deterioration in financial conditions could impact the company's ability to service its debt.
Lower
Market Volatility
BWXT's stock has a beta of 1.32, indicating higher volatility compared to the broader market. This increased volatility can lead to significant fluctuations in stock price, affecting investor sentiment and market perception.
Lower
Competition from Alternatives
The competitiveness of alternative energy sources could adversely affect BWXT's manufacturing facilities. As the market evolves, BWXT may face challenges in maintaining its market position against emerging energy technologies.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BWXT Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Government Contracts and Defense
BWXT is the sole supplier of nuclear reactor cores and components for the U.S. Navy, providing a stable and recurring revenue base. This includes contracts for programs like the Columbia-class and Virginia-class submarines, significantly driving its business.
Nuclear Industry Growth
There is a broad demand for nuclear solutions driven by the transition to clean energy and heightened defense priorities. BWXT is well-positioned to benefit from this growth, including the potential for commercial nuclear build-out and the development of small modular reactors (SMRs).
Strategic Expansion
BWXT is targeting expansion in space reactors, small modular reactors, and medical isotopes. The company has been selected for projects like DARPA and NASA's DRACO program to demonstrate nuclear thermal propulsion, diversifying income streams and bolstering future commercial opportunities.
Financial Performance and Outlook
BWXT has demonstrated revenue expansion and strong operating cash flow, with analysts projecting significant increases in revenue and net income through 2027. The company's backlog has grown substantially, providing visibility for future revenue.
Technical Capabilities and Barriers to Entry
BWXT's expertise in nuclear component manufacturing and its highly technical, regulated work create significant barriers to entry for competitors. This positions the company favorably in a niche market.
Restoration of Domestic HEU Capability
BWXT is initiating pre-application engagement to build a new high-enriched uranium enrichment facility, tied to a significant government contract. This aims to restore domestic HEU processing capability, further strengthening its market position.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BWXT Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$215.20
52W Range Position
81%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$102.42
+110.1% from the low
52-Week High
$241.82
-11.0% from the high
1 Month
-0.36%
3 Month
+9.13%
YTD
+18.3%
1 Year
+99.0%
3Y CAGR
+49.0%
5Y CAGR
+26.9%
10Y CAGR
+20.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BWXT vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
46.7x
vs 18.4x median
+153% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+13.5%
vs +6.1% median
+121% above peer median
Net Margin
10.2%
vs 8.1% median
+27% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BWX BWXT BWX Technologies, Inc. | $19.7B | 46.7x | +13.5% | 10.2% | Buy | -2.4% |
CW CW Curtiss-Wright Corporation | $27.6B | 49.3x | +11.0% | 13.8% | Buy | -4.6% |
LDO LDOS Leidos Holdings, Inc. | $17.1B | 11.4x | +2.7% | 8.2% | Buy | +51.2% |
CAC CACI CACI International Inc | $11.0B | 17.7x | +9.8% | 5.9% | Buy | +45.3% |
HII HII Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. | $12.6B | 18.4x | +4.9% | 4.7% | Hold | +31.4% |
GD GD General Dynamics Corporation | $93.9B | 21.1x | +6.1% | 8.1% | Buy | +17.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BWXT Dividend and Capital Return
BWXT returns 0.6% total yield, led by a 0.47% dividend, raised 10 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.2%
Dividend Yield
0.47%
Payout Ratio
28.0%
How BWXT Splits Its Return
Div 0.47%
Buyback 0.2%
Dividend 0.47%Buybacks 0.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.01
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
10Y
3Y Div CAGR
4.4%
5Y Div CAGR
5.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$30M
Estimated Shares Retired
139.4K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
92M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.27 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.00 | +4.2% | 0.2% | 0.8% |
| 2024 | $0.96 | +4.3% | 0.2% | 1.1% |
| 2023 | $0.92 | +4.5% | 0.1% | 1.3% |
| 2022 | $0.88 | +4.8% | 0.4% | 1.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsBWXT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 16 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $210, implying -2.4% from the current price of $215. The bear case scenario is $169 and the bull case is $403.
02What is the BWXT stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BWXT is $210 based on 16 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $225 (+4.6% from today), and the low-end target is $195 (-9.4%). The base case model target is $301.
03Is BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) stock overvalued in 2026?
BWXT trades at 46.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BWXT in 2026 are: (1) Government Funding Dependence — Approximately 75% of BWXT's revenue comes from the U. (2) Nuclear Operations Risks — BWXT's nuclear operations are subject to significant environmental, regulatory, and financial risks, including potential liabilities related to environmental and human health impacts. (3) Regulatory Compliance Risks — Non-compliance with safety and quality requirements imposed by regulatory agencies like the NRC and CNSC could lead to increased oversight, fines, or operational shutdowns. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is BWX Technologies, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BWXT will report consensus revenue of $3.8B (+13.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.41 (+17.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.4B in revenue.
06When does BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for BWXT is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does BWX Technologies, Inc. generate?
BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) generated $328M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.7%. BWXT returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.5% yield) and share repurchases ($30M TTM).