MODEL VERDICT
Citigroup Inc. (C)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $127.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $127.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $132.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $131.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $124.36 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $102.87 | -19.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $231.80 | +81.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $265.91 | +108.7% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $149.27 | +17.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $102.35 | -19.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $142.30 | +11.7% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $134.64 | +5.7% | 100% | 85 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $103 | $115 | $127 | $140 | $152 |
| Conservative (5%) | $106 | $119 | $131 | $144 | $156 |
| Base Case (-5.8%) | $95 | $106 | $118 | $129 | $140 |
| Bull Case (-8%) | $93 | $104 | $115 | $126 | $137 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.68 | 9.94 | 5.96 | 13.04 | 2.97 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.79 | 18.71 | 12.21 | 34.23 | 7.73 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.71 | 16.08 | 10.67 | 25.29 | 5.22 |
| P/FCF | 3.79 | 3.91 | 2.88 | 4.57 | 0.85 |
| P/FFO | 6.71 | 7.30 | 4.65 | 8.64 | 1.59 |
| P/TBV | 0.72 | 0.72 | 0.50 | 1.08 | 0.19 |
| P/AFFO | 9.64 | 10.07 | 5.68 | 13.96 | 3.21 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.63 | 0.64 | 0.44 | 0.93 | 0.16 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.20 | 1.34 | 0.65 | 1.75 | 0.43 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates C's fair value at $134.64 vs the current price of $127.43, implying +5.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $134.64 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $113.92 (P10) to $145.71 (P90), with a median of $129.62.
C's current P/E of 21.4x compares to the industry median of 17.3x (12 peers in the group). This represents a +23.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.7x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
27 analysts cover C with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $140.42 (range: $87.00 — $162.00), implying +10.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (9), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: C trades at the 8570th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (9.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that C's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1540.0% to approximately $108. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.