MODEL VERDICT
Citigroup Inc. (C) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $110.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $116.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $110.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $122.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $121.32 | Below threshold | +2.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 21 industry peers | $85.19 | -22.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $178.35 | +61.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 21 bank peers | $179.14 | +62.5% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 19 industry peers | $89.91 | -18.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 21 industry peers | $84.98 | -22.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 21 analyst estimates | $109.16 | -1.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $103.11 | -6.5% | 100% | 85 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $91 | $103 | $115 | $127 | $140 |
| Conservative (5%) | $94 | $106 | $119 | $131 | $144 |
| Base Case (-5.8%) | $84 | $95 | $106 | $118 | $129 |
| Bull Case (-8%) | $82 | $93 | $104 | $115 | $126 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.68 | 9.94 | 5.96 | 13.04 | 2.97 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.79 | 18.71 | 12.21 | 34.23 | 7.73 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.71 | 16.08 | 10.67 | 25.29 | 5.22 |
| P/FCF | 3.79 | 3.91 | 2.88 | 4.57 | 0.85 |
| P/FFO | 6.71 | 7.30 | 4.65 | 8.64 | 1.59 |
| P/TBV | 0.72 | 0.72 | 0.50 | 1.08 | 0.19 |
| P/AFFO | 9.64 | 10.07 | 5.68 | 13.96 | 3.21 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.63 | 0.64 | 0.44 | 0.93 | 0.16 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.20 | 1.34 | 0.65 | 1.75 | 0.43 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates C's fair value at $103.11 vs the current price of $110.22, implying -6.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $103.11 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $94.90 (P10) to $110.95 (P90), with a median of $102.87.
C's current P/E of 18.5x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (21 peers in the group). This represents a +29.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.7x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
26 analysts cover C with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $132.09 (range: $87.00 — $152.00), implying +19.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (9), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: C trades at the 8570th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (9.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that C's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 220.0% to approximately $108. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.