MODEL VERDICT
Calix, Inc. (CALX) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $51.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $55.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $53.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $55.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $51.74 | Below threshold | +7.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $36.15 | -30.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $12.94 | -75.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $6.75 | -87.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $32.03 | -38.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $9.11 | -82.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $31.35 | -39.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $51.03 | -1.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $46.96 | -9.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $7.14 | -86.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $32.07 | -38.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $35.47 | -31.5% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 167× | 183× | 199× (Current) | 215× | 231× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $44 | $49 | $53 | $57 | $61 |
| Conservative (5%) | $46 | $50 | $54 | $59 | $63 |
| Base Case (-13.6%) | $38 | $41 | $45 | $48 | $52 |
| Bull Case (-18%) | $35 | $39 | $42 | $46 | $49 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 99.91 | 104.02 | 22.78 | 203.58 | 68.77 |
| EV/EBIT | 86.82 | 88.50 | 49.71 | 116.35 | 26.34 |
| EV/EBITDA | 65.86 | 69.57 | 35.26 | 93.28 | 20.92 |
| P/FCF | 112.63 | 62.25 | 32.27 | 359.53 | 124.91 |
| P/FFO | 63.27 | 65.90 | 21.42 | 104.73 | 33.71 |
| P/TBV | 9.01 | 8.37 | 3.46 | 17.12 | 4.96 |
| P/AFFO | 104.39 | 107.78 | 22.34 | 230.69 | 80.78 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.35 | 4.34 | 2.86 | 9.55 | 2.45 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.90 | 3.41 | 1.04 | 7.99 | 2.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CALX's fair value at $35.47 vs the current price of $51.77, implying -31.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $35.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $25.22 (P10) to $58.75 (P90), with a median of $39.08.
CALX's current P/E of 199.1x compares to the industry median of 26.0x (71 peers in the group). This represents a +666.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 99.9x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
21 analysts cover CALX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $75.50 (range: $60.00 — $85.00), implying +45.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (5), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CALX trades at the 9720th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (99.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CALX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (6.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7200.0% to approximately $89. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.