MODEL VERDICT
Cathay General Bancorp (CATY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $56.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $54.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $54.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $53.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $53.47 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $60.00 | +6.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $47.91 | -15.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $51.68 | -8.4% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $51.88 | -8.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $60.00 | +6.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $59.93 | +6.2% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $54.19 | -3.9% | 100% | 97 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $38 | $47 | $57 | $66 | $75 |
| Conservative (6%) | $39 | $48 | $58 | $68 | $77 |
| Base Case (9.6%) | $40 | $50 | $60 | $70 | $80 |
| Bull Case (13%) | $41 | $51 | $62 | $72 | $82 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.54 | 10.93 | 8.45 | 12.05 | 1.28 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.53 | 9.37 | 7.43 | 11.07 | 1.41 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.07 | 8.97 | 7.13 | 10.51 | 1.32 |
| P/FCF | 8.60 | 8.52 | 6.56 | 10.58 | 1.48 |
| P/FFO | 9.91 | 10.38 | 8.01 | 11.37 | 1.19 |
| P/TBV | 1.43 | 1.40 | 1.26 | 1.63 | 0.14 |
| P/AFFO | 10.07 | 10.63 | 8.08 | 11.51 | 1.23 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.06 | 1.38 | 0.11 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.22 | 3.35 | 2.38 | 4.68 | 0.85 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates CATY's fair value at $54.19 vs the current price of $56.41, implying -3.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $54.19 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $49.97 (P10) to $57.09 (P90), with a median of $53.40.
CATY's current P/E of 12.4x compares to the industry median of 13.2x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -6.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.5x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
13 analysts cover CATY with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $47.00 (range: $47.00 — $47.00), implying -16.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CATY trades at the 4330th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CATY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (30.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1510.0% to approximately $65. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.