MODEL VERDICT
Cedar Realty Trust, Inc. (CDR-PB) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 26 industry peers | $12.95 | -32.2% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 24 industry peers | $18.85 | -1.3% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 27 industry peers | $6.86 | -64.1% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 22 industry peers | $4.70 | -75.4% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 27 industry peers | $16.06 | -15.9% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 27 industry peers | $17.01 | -10.9% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $8.93 | -53.2% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 114× | 125× | 136× (Current) | 147× | 158× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $17 | $18 | $20 | $21 | $23 |
| Conservative (7%) | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 | $24 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $18 | $19 | $21 | $23 | $24 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $18 | $20 | $22 | $23 | $25 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 31.38 | 31.57 | 23.86 | 36.14 | 4.69 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.01 | 9.41 | 6.05 | 14.86 | 4.01 |
| P/FCF | 40.82 | 20.47 | 7.77 | 98.98 | 40.13 |
| P/FFO | 9.31 | 8.14 | 1.93 | 19.86 | 8.00 |
| P/TBV | 1.33 | 0.79 | 0.39 | 3.75 | 1.30 |
| P/AFFO | 32.90 | 4.03 | 2.65 | 126.47 | 53.32 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.29 | 0.77 | 0.38 | 3.66 | 1.26 |
| Div Yield | 0.34 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 2.04 | 0.75 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.43 | 2.67 | 1.41 | 5.96 | 2.10 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates CDR-PB's fair value at $8.93 vs the current price of $19.09, implying -53.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $8.93 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.86 (P10) to $14.32 (P90), with a median of $9.76.
CDR-PB's current P/E of 136.4x compares to the industry median of 33.5x (22 peers in the group). This represents a +306.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
No analyst coverage data is available for CDR-PB.
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CDR-PB.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.