MODEL VERDICT
Certara, Inc. (CERT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $6.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $6.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $6.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $6.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $5.55 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $7.09 | +14.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $8.11 | +31.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $10.68 | +72.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $3.95 | -36.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $12.99 | +110.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $10.13 | +63.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $9.81 | +58.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $10.73 | +73.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $17.96 | +190.6% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 274.02 | 325.44 | 72.06 | 424.56 | 181.79 |
| EV/EBITDA | 103.23 | 52.81 | 15.92 | 282.90 | 108.34 |
| P/FCF | 53.64 | 31.32 | 14.94 | 139.90 | 48.63 |
| P/FFO | 828.78 | 38.11 | 25.71 | 3915.85 | 1726.30 |
| P/AFFO | 70.63 | 35.18 | 26.56 | 185.58 | 76.81 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.06 | 2.52 | 1.33 | 6.27 | 1.85 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.90 | 7.76 | 3.37 | 21.18 | 6.84 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates CERT's fair value at $17.96 vs the current price of $6.18, implying +190.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $17.96 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $10.67 (P10) to $25.58 (P90), with a median of $17.17.
CERT's current P/E of -618.0x compares to the industry median of 24.1x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -2665.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
14 analysts cover CERT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $10.00 (range: $10.00 — $10.00), implying +61.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CERT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.