MODEL VERDICT
IQVIA Holdings Inc. (IQV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $157.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $162.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $176.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $178.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $167.34 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $218.06 | +38.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $230.61 | +46.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $194.62 | +23.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $202.82 | +28.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $204.98 | +29.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $140.02 | -11.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $531.08 | +236.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $227.49 | +44.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $356.57 | +126.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $196.06 | +24.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $202.36 | +28.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $260.60 | +65.2% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (16%) | $146 | $164 | $182 | $200 | $219 |
| Conservative (26%) | $158 | $178 | $198 | $218 | $238 |
| Base Case (40.5%) | $176 | $198 | $220 | $242 | $264 |
| Bull Case (55%) | $194 | $218 | $243 | $267 | $291 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 66.54 | 35.82 | 26.24 | 160.95 | 54.26 |
| EV/EBIT | 36.19 | 28.58 | 20.73 | 58.34 | 15.24 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.20 | 17.93 | 14.62 | 24.87 | 3.85 |
| P/FCF | 25.19 | 24.62 | 17.05 | 36.93 | 6.54 |
| P/FFO | 19.17 | 17.58 | 14.49 | 24.67 | 3.86 |
| P/AFFO | 28.26 | 25.24 | 19.12 | 38.03 | 7.98 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.47 | 5.94 | 4.92 | 9.11 | 1.37 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.88 | 2.78 | 2.34 | 3.97 | 0.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates IQV's fair value at $260.60 vs the current price of $157.77, implying +65.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $260.60 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $214.71 (P10) to $300.02 (P90), with a median of $254.43.
IQV's current P/E of 20.1x compares to the industry median of 24.8x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -18.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 66.5x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
44 analysts cover IQV with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $225.63 (range: $185.00 — $250.00), implying +43.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (36), Hold (6), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that IQV's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 15510.0% to approximately $402. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.