MODEL VERDICT
Capitol Federal Financial, Inc. (CFFN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $7.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $7.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $7.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $7.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $7.57 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $7.17 | -6.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $8.51 | +11.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $11.01 | +43.5% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $10.67 | +39.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $7.16 | -6.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $7.14 | -6.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $8.38 | +9.2% | 100% | 93 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $6 | $7 | $8 | $9 | $10 |
| Conservative (5%) | $6 | $7 | $8 | $9 | $10 |
| Base Case (2.0%) | $6 | $7 | $8 | $9 | $10 |
| Bull Case (3%) | $6 | $7 | $8 | $9 | $10 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.07 | 20.21 | 13.10 | 26.60 | 4.96 |
| EV/EBIT | 36.29 | 32.22 | 30.38 | 50.54 | 8.04 |
| EV/EBITDA | 32.38 | 29.18 | 27.61 | 43.54 | 6.30 |
| P/FCF | 22.37 | 22.05 | 12.79 | 32.18 | 6.29 |
| P/FFO | 16.48 | 17.09 | 11.69 | 22.79 | 4.08 |
| P/TBV | 1.07 | 1.07 | 0.75 | 1.43 | 0.27 |
| P/AFFO | 18.90 | 19.66 | 12.55 | 28.31 | 5.75 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.07 | 1.07 | 0.75 | 1.42 | 0.27 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.14 | 4.64 | 2.04 | 5.51 | 1.52 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates CFFN's fair value at $8.38 vs the current price of $7.67, implying +9.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $8.38 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.87 (P10) to $9.25 (P90), with a median of $8.55.
CFFN's current P/E of 14.8x compares to the industry median of 13.8x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +7.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.1x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
5 analysts cover CFFN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $7.00 (range: $7.00 — $7.00), implying -8.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CFFN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (10.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1640.0% to approximately $6. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.