MODEL VERDICT
The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 (CGABL) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $17.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $17.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $17.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $17.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $17.44 | Pending | -0.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 41 industry peers | $32.42 | +84.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 44 industry peers | $32.16 | +82.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 42 bank peers | $27.17 | +54.5% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 32 industry peers | $43.69 | +148.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 39 industry peers | $34.21 | +94.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $27.03 | +53.6% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 6× (Current) | 8× | 10× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $11 | $11 | $17 | $23 | $28 |
| Conservative (5%) | $12 | $12 | $17 | $23 | $29 |
| Base Case (-21.8%) | $9 | $9 | $13 | $17 | $22 |
| Bull Case (-29%) | $8 | $8 | $12 | $16 | $20 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 4.69 | 4.61 | 3.01 | 6.43 | 1.71 |
| EV/EBIT | 2.46 | 2.56 | 2.09 | 2.74 | 0.34 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.63 | 2.44 | 2.06 | 3.41 | 0.69 |
| P/FCF | 6.70 | 6.49 | 5.24 | 8.37 | 1.57 |
| P/FFO | 4.18 | 4.13 | 2.96 | 5.44 | 1.24 |
| P/TBV | 1.24 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.62 | 0.29 |
| P/AFFO | 4.36 | 4.25 | 3.00 | 5.82 | 1.41 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.14 | 1.05 | 0.87 | 1.61 | 0.34 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.52 | 1.27 | 1.04 | 2.51 | 0.67 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates CGABL's fair value at $27.03 vs the current price of $17.59, implying +53.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $27.03 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $22.80 (P10) to $34.61 (P90), with a median of $28.26.
CGABL's current P/E of 6.4x compares to the industry median of 11.7x (41 peers in the group). This represents a -45.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 4.7x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for CGABL.
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CGABL trades at the 1950th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (4.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CGABL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (17.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3080.0% to approximately $12. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.