Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU)
Valuation Overview•Is Centerra Gold Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount across both intrinsic cash flow and relative peer multiples, indicating a strong margin of safety.
High-quality fundamentals with a strong composite quality score of 79/100, backed by robust profitability and solvency.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though profitability presents a headwind.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside. This is paired with healthy capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
CGAU demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($498M) and minimal debt risk.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (16.1% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 39.9% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $484.7M | +9.5% | +16.1% | +13.0% | +7.9% | |
| EBITDA | $181.4M | — | +76.5% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $79.4M | +639.1% | — | — | +30.5% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.39 | +725.7% | — | +14.8% | +32.0% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $47.8M | -17.1% | — | -31.0% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 34.9% | 29.4% | 28.4% | 32.4% |
| Operating Margin | 39.9% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 10.6% |
| Net Margin | 41.2% | 14.6% | -1.5% | 8.9% |
| FCF Margin | 8.5% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 17.8% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.41 | $0.44 | +7.3% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.34 | $0.41 | +20.6% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.22 | $0.33 | +50.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.17 | $0.25 | +47.1% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.12 | $0.12 | +0.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.20 | $0.17 | -15.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.20 | $0.18 | -10.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.16 | $0.23 | +43.8% |
Total return is +123.0% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +102.2%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +10.5% | +3.2% | — |
| 1Y | +123.0% | +102.2% | +2.9% |
| 3YCAGR | +40.1% | +22.6% | +10.4% |
| 5YCAGR | +15.9% | +4.9% | +13.1% |
| 10YCAGR | +11.1% | -1.9% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.0x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) valuation, health, and returns.
Centerra Gold Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +115.8% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $34.94)
Centerra Gold Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $34.94 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $30.62 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $19.00 (implying +17.6% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Centerra Gold Inc. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 79/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 3.7 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 13.6%.
Centerra Gold Inc. pays a 1.3% dividend yield, covered by a 7% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 3.0% buyback yield.
Centerra Gold Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +9.5% 1Y revenue growth and +725.7% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +16.1%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 5 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 50% of recent quarters with a 4-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +17.6% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Centerra Gold Inc. include: -29.9% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (1.62x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.62x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.