Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$99.14
→
Intrinsic$79.50
-20%
$50.72$79.50$136.79
Market implies 13% growth for 5 years
CL trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $99, the market prices in 13% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (8%).
Range: Bear $51 → Bull $137. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $99 | $109 | $119 | $131 |
| 10% | $66 | $72 | $80 | $87 |
| 12% | $48 | $53 | $58 | $64 |
| 14% | $37 | $41 | $45 | $50 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($137) offers 38% upside at 10% growth, 8% discount
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($51) implies 49% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 13% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 20% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$3.92B
Year 2$4.24B
Year 3$4.58B
Year 4$4.94B
Year 5$5.34B
Terminal$84.61B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$3.63BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.