Calumet Inc. (CLMT)
Valuation Overview•Is Calumet Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a premium valuation multiple over its peers, likely pricing in superior execution.
Fragile underlying quality score of 30/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
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Verdict: Highly distressed profile flashing severe fundamental warning signs.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral. The company currently dilutes shareholders to fund operations and growth rather than returning capital.
CLMT struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-4.1% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (1.1%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.4B | -1.2% | -4.1% | +12.8% | -0.2% | |
| EBITDA | $46.8M | — | -4.1% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$95.9M | +84.8% | +41.6% | — | +13.2% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-1.09 | +85.4% | — | — | +14.5% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $54.0M | +146.0% | — | +24.7% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.9% |
| Operating Margin | 1.1% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% |
| Net Margin | -3.0% | -1.7% | -3.3% | -3.8% |
| FCF Margin | 3.3% | -2.8% | -4.4% | -2.3% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26Latest | $0.07 | $-1.09 | -1717.0% | ||
| Q2'26 | $-0.57 | $-3.64 | -538.6% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.67 | $-0.43 | +35.8% | ||
| Q4'25 | $-0.35 | $-3.61 | -930.9% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-0.44 | $-1.70 | -286.4% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-0.41 | $-1.87 | -356.1% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-1.06 | $-0.47 | +55.7% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-0.59 | $-1.18 | -100.0% |
Total return is +193.8% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +178.0%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +178.2% | +165.8% | — |
| 1Y | +193.8% | +178.0% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +41.4% | +22.6% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +47.7% | +38.0% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +26.5% | +13.5% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Calumet Inc. (CLMT) valuation, health, and returns.
Calumet Inc. is estimated to be fairly valued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $0.00)
Calumet Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $0.00 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $10.37 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $55.67 (implying +2.4% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Calumet Inc. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 30/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 0.8 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 2.2%.
Calumet Inc. does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
Calumet Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved -1.2% 1Y revenue growth and +85.4% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -4.1%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 23 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 42% of recent quarters with a -2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +2.4% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Calumet Inc. include: -15.0% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of -0.06x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.