MODEL VERDICT
Cinemark Holdings, Inc. (CNK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $27.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $28.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $30.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $29.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $30.37 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 2 analyst estimates | $55.78 | +102.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 3 industry peers | $30.33 | +9.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 2 industry peers | $34.31 | +24.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 1 industry peers | $41.28 | +49.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $40.09 | +45.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 1 industry peers | $43.30 | +56.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 3 industry peers | $31.19 | +12.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 3 industry peers | $22.71 | -17.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 2 industry peers | $26.36 | -4.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 2 industry peers | $51.14 | +85.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $76.58 | +177.3% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $25 | $27 | $29 | $31 | $34 |
| Conservative (7%) | $25 | $28 | $30 | $32 | $34 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $26 | $29 | $31 | $33 | $35 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $27 | $30 | $32 | $34 | $37 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.17 | 17.90 | 10.51 | 22.35 | 5.43 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.47 | 14.64 | 11.41 | 17.19 | 3.05 |
| EV/EBITDA | 77.52 | 12.16 | 7.17 | 397.51 | 156.94 |
| P/FCF | 18.81 | 15.25 | 7.26 | 40.46 | 12.72 |
| P/FFO | 8.19 | 8.95 | 5.39 | 9.46 | 1.89 |
| P/AFFO | 18.59 | 19.61 | 8.63 | 26.51 | 8.93 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.96 | 6.72 | 2.54 | 8.57 | 2.45 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.30 | 1.20 | 0.42 | 2.96 | 0.82 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CNK's fair value at $76.58 vs the current price of $27.62, implying +177.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $76.58 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $35.07 (P10) to $144.19 (P90), with a median of $65.47.
CNK's current P/E of 26.6x compares to the industry median of 33.0x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -19.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.2x over 4 years. Signal: Discount.
31 analysts cover CNK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $31.67 (range: $22.00 — $37.00), implying +14.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (13), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CNK trades at the 4210th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (17.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CNK.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.