MODEL VERDICT
AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. (AMC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $1.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $1.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $1.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $1.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $1.35 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 3 industry peers | $31.03 | +2040.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $63.71 | +4293.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 3 industry peers | $7.07 | +387.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 3 industry peers | $10.28 | +609.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $133.29 | +9092.3% | 100% | 61 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 225.56 | 96.24 | 64.66 | 515.78 | 251.83 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.59 | 25.30 | 2.43 | 37.34 | 15.57 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.13 | 0.29 | 0.16 | 12.25 | 4.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates AMC's fair value at $133.29 vs the current price of $1.45, implying +9092.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 61/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $133.29 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $41.42 (P10) to $249.09 (P90), with a median of $126.43.
AMC's current P/E of -1.2x compares to the industry median of 34.7x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -103.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
28 analysts cover AMC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $2.00 (range: $2.00 — $2.00), implying +37.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (14), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 61/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AMC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.