MODEL VERDICT
SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $17.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $19.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $19.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $21.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $27.40 | Below threshold | -22.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 41 industry peers | $4.36 | -75.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 44 industry peers | $9.02 | -49.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 42 bank peers | $5.47 | -69.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 32 industry peers | $0.47 | -97.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 39 industry peers | $4.56 | -74.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 41 analyst estimates | $4.99 | -71.9% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5.65 | -68.2% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 38× | 42× | 46× (Current) | 50× | 54× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $15 | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 |
| Conservative (7%) | $16 | $17 | $19 | $21 | $22 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $16 | $18 | $20 | $21 | $23 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 | $24 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 2.20 | 2.49 | 0.88 | 3.78 | 1.16 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.46 | 1.69 | 0.47 | 2.60 | 0.86 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.95 | 3.25 | 1.92 | 7.66 | 2.31 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates SOFI's fair value at $5.65 vs the current price of $17.76, implying -68.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.65 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.45 (P10) to $7.23 (P90), with a median of $5.81.
SOFI's current P/E of 45.5x compares to the industry median of 11.2x (41 peers in the group). This represents a +307.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
24 analysts cover SOFI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $28.56 (range: $18.00 — $38.00), implying +60.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (12), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SOFI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.