MODEL VERDICT
Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $325.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $352.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $337.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $356.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $331.50 | Pending | +7.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $410.73 | +26.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 55 industry peers | $445.95 | +37.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 45 industry peers | $319.27 | -1.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $368.55 | +13.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $364.75 | +12.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $305.32 | -6.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $127.83 | -60.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $102.71 | -68.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $166.76 | -48.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 50 industry peers | $361.44 | +11.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $382.40 | +17.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $358.07 | +10.1% | 100% | 87 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 19× | 21× | 23× (Current) | 25× | 27× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $273 | $302 | $330 | $359 | $388 |
| Conservative (5%) | $279 | $308 | $337 | $367 | $396 |
| Base Case (7.0%) | $284 | $314 | $344 | $374 | $404 |
| Bull Case (10%) | $291 | $321 | $352 | $382 | $413 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.78 | 22.41 | 14.79 | 33.60 | 6.04 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.10 | 17.40 | 13.69 | 26.70 | 4.68 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.86 | 15.24 | 11.15 | 22.03 | 3.76 |
| P/FCF | 18.13 | 17.33 | 10.80 | 23.84 | 4.87 |
| P/FFO | 17.76 | 16.75 | 11.06 | 24.67 | 4.48 |
| P/AFFO | 19.63 | 18.59 | 12.55 | 26.87 | 4.66 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.49 | 6.56 | 5.12 | 7.73 | 0.90 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.03 | 6.64 | 4.12 | 9.90 | 2.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CPAY's fair value at $358.07 vs the current price of $325.10, implying +10.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $358.07 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $301.50 (P10) to $450.10 (P90), with a median of $374.24.
CPAY's current P/E of 23.3x compares to the industry median of 22.9x (45 peers in the group). This represents a +1.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.8x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
18 analysts cover CPAY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $362.29 (range: $300.00 — $390.00), implying +11.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CPAY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.5σ, meaning margins are 1.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (29.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2310.0% to approximately $400. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.