Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$325.10
→
Intrinsic$398.44
+23%
$243.98$398.44$692.03
Market implies 6% growth for 5 years
CPAY shows 23% potential upside using 10% growth — reasonable if fundamentals hold.
At $325, the market prices in only 6% growth — below historical 10%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $244 → Bull $692. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 6% | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $492 | $544 | $600 | $660 |
| 10% | $324 | $360 | $398 | $440 |
| 12% | $231 | $258 | $287 | $317 |
| 14% | $171 | $193 | $215 | $240 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($692) offers 113% upside at 12% growth, 9% discount
- 18% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (6%) ≤ historical CAGR (10%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($244) implies 25% downside at 8% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.95B
Year 2$2.14B
Year 3$2.36B
Year 4$2.60B
Year 5$2.87B
Terminal$42.19B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate10.2%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.77BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.