MODEL VERDICT
Cushman & Wakefield plc (CWK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $14.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $14.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $14.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $13.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $13.22 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 5 REIT peers | $18.18 | +28.8% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 4 REIT peers | $14.13 | +0.1% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $26.17 | +85.5% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 5 industry peers | $17.12 | +21.3% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $9.21 | -34.7% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $26.76 | +89.7% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $146.10 | +935.4% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $87.17 | +517.8% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $63.68 | +351.3% | 100% | 74 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 31× | 34× | 37× (Current) | 40× | 43× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $12 | $13 | $15 | $16 | $17 |
| Conservative (7%) | $13 | $14 | $15 | $16 | $17 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $13 | $14 | $15 | $17 | $18 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $13 | $15 | $16 | $17 | $19 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 4562.36 | 23.36 | 14.49 | 22711.11 | 10145.47 |
| EV/EBIT | 236.49 | 18.94 | 10.91 | 1539.77 | 574.74 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.81 | 11.45 | 7.39 | 18.74 | 3.43 |
| P/FCF | 17.97 | 18.23 | 10.16 | 24.28 | 6.42 |
| P/FFO | 12.98 | 11.78 | 6.38 | 20.30 | 5.17 |
| P/AFFO | 16.42 | 14.33 | 7.20 | 27.22 | 7.56 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.09 | 1.73 | 1.29 | 3.48 | 0.82 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.39 | 0.37 | 0.26 | 0.54 | 0.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates CWK's fair value at $63.68 vs the current price of $14.11, implying +351.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $63.68 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $19.76 (P10) to $191.61 (P90), with a median of $65.69.
CWK's current P/E of 37.1x compares to the industry median of 24.2x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +53.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 4562.4x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
16 analysts cover CWK with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $18.80 (range: $18.00 — $19.00), implying +33.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CWK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (0.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 736480.0% to approximately $1053. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.