MODEL VERDICT
Crexendo, Inc. (CXDO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 32 industry peers | $0.85 | -86.6% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 53 industry peers | $2.35 | -62.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 42 analyst estimates | $3.58 | -43.4% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 44 industry peers | $1.80 | -71.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 38 industry peers | $1.19 | -81.2% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 54 industry peers | $6.14 | -2.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 32 industry peers | $0.85 | -86.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $3.95 | -37.5% | 100% | 73 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 95× | 104× | 113× (Current) | 122× | 131× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 |
| Conservative (5%) | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 |
| Base Case (-4.4%) | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 |
| Bull Case (-6%) | $5 | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 56.45 | 60.71 | 15.07 | 93.56 | 39.42 |
| EV/EBIT | 59.97 | 53.69 | 53.25 | 72.98 | 11.27 |
| EV/EBITDA | 56.14 | 56.50 | 27.34 | 84.21 | 23.72 |
| P/FCF | 37.30 | 33.66 | 17.48 | 64.41 | 20.83 |
| P/FFO | 34.72 | 35.27 | 14.73 | 53.63 | 16.22 |
| P/TBV | 11.80 | 10.84 | 4.78 | 18.36 | 5.41 |
| P/AFFO | 34.89 | 31.52 | 16.20 | 56.96 | 20.59 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.08 | 3.05 | 1.05 | 15.07 | 6.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.44 | 2.58 | 1.16 | 7.37 | 2.04 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates CXDO's fair value at $3.95 vs the current price of $6.32, implying -37.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $3.95 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.18 (P10) to $5.29 (P90), with a median of $4.21.
CXDO's current P/E of 113.1x compares to the industry median of 15.3x (32 peers in the group). This represents a +639.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 56.4x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
6 analysts cover CXDO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $9.50 (range: $9.00 — $10.00), implying +50.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CXDO trades at the 9380th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (56.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CXDO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.