China Yuchai International Limited (CYD)
Valuation Overview•Is China Yuchai International Limited Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Moderate quality score of 49/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
CYD struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($3.7B) and minimal debt risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-3.5% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (3.3%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.9B | +6.0% | -3.5% | +1.2% | +1.5% | |
| EBITDA | $477.0M | — | +0.6% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $182.9M | +13.1% | +5.8% | — | -7.8% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $4.87 | +17.5% | +7.2% | -11.1% | -8.2% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.00 | -76.3% | — | -22.4% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 13.8% | 14.9% | 14.6% | 17.3% |
| Operating Margin | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.6% |
| Net Margin | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.8% |
| FCF Margin | — | 1.1% | 1.4% | 4.4% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26Latest | $0.80 | $0.65 | -18.6% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.71 | $0.68 | -4.0% | ||
| Q2'25 | — | $0.15 | — | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.58 | $0.30 | -48.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | — | $0.16 | — | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.57 | $0.40 | -29.1% | ||
| Q2'24 | — | $0.19 | — | ||
| Q1'24 | — | $0.41 | — |
Total return is +126.8% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +101.8%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +31.6% | +22.2% | — |
| 1Y | +126.8% | +101.8% | +2.4% |
| 3YCAGR | +70.6% | +53.7% | +11.8% |
| 5YCAGR | +24.3% | +13.0% | +18.8% |
| 10YCAGR | +17.9% | +4.8% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about China Yuchai International Limited (CYD) valuation, health, and returns.
China Yuchai International Limited is estimated to be fair under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $50.55)
China Yuchai International Limited has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $50.55 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $342.49 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $60.00 (implying +23.2% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
China Yuchai International Limited displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 49/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 1.5 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 5.0%.
China Yuchai International Limited pays a 0.8% dividend yield, covered by a 31% payout ratio with 2 years of growth, supplemented by a 2.3% buyback yield.
China Yuchai International Limited's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +6.0% 1Y revenue growth and +17.5% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -3.5%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 2 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 8% of recent quarters with a -10-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +23.2% change from current levels.
Investment risks for China Yuchai International Limited include: -34.2% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (1.41x market volatility), elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.41x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.