MODEL VERDICT
Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CZR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $28.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $28.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $27.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $27.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $26.88 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $105.08 | +270.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $41.34 | +45.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $115.14 | +305.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $0.05 | -99.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $84.87 | +199.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $41.47 | +46.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $148.14 | +422.0% | 100% | 73 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 19.53 | 14.75 | 11.19 | 43.12 | 11.86 |
| EV/EBITDA | 33.79 | 9.16 | 7.25 | 174.15 | 61.98 |
| P/FCF | 90.56 | 18.58 | 7.54 | 387.06 | 165.99 |
| P/FFO | 39.03 | 6.09 | 3.50 | 184.44 | 71.89 |
| P/AFFO | 21.87 | 13.45 | 7.93 | 44.23 | 19.56 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.10 | 1.92 | 0.96 | 4.35 | 1.10 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.13 | 0.82 | 0.42 | 2.66 | 0.88 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates CZR's fair value at $148.14 vs the current price of $28.38, implying +422.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $148.14 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $54.03 (P10) to $367.38 (P90), with a median of $160.34.
CZR's current P/E of -11.7x compares to the industry median of 31.7x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -137.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
30 analysts cover CZR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $30.57 (range: $24.00 — $36.00), implying +7.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (17), Hold (12), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CZR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.