MODEL VERDICT
Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $84.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $83.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $87.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $85.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $86.50 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $127.45 | +50.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $150.46 | +78.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $502.53 | +494.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $75.90 | -10.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $144.93 | +71.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $102.71 | +21.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $118.50 | +40.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $84.23 | -0.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $502.15 | +494.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $75.90 | -10.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $193.57 | +129.1% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 6× | 8× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $94 | $94 | $94 | $141 | $188 |
| Conservative (7%) | $96 | $96 | $96 | $144 | $192 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $99 | $99 | $99 | $149 | $199 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $102 | $102 | $102 | $154 | $205 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.14 | 10.97 | 3.78 | 21.70 | 6.15 |
| EV/EBIT | 31.66 | 11.17 | 3.97 | 154.53 | 54.34 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.03 | 8.62 | 7.71 | 31.12 | 8.46 |
| P/FCF | 16.03 | 11.74 | 8.41 | 42.74 | 12.19 |
| P/FFO | 10.92 | 7.86 | 3.25 | 33.29 | 10.09 |
| P/AFFO | 11.81 | 13.34 | 4.73 | 15.06 | 4.04 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.75 | 3.74 | 2.67 | 4.86 | 0.83 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.75 | 1.70 | 1.03 | 2.24 | 0.41 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates BYD's fair value at $193.57 vs the current price of $84.50, implying +129.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $193.57 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $149.24 (P10) to $225.76 (P90), with a median of $184.67.
BYD's current P/E of 3.7x compares to the industry median of 22.3x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -83.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.1x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
38 analysts cover BYD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $95.00 (range: $83.00 — $110.00), implying +12.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (21), Hold (17), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BYD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (25.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8150.0% to approximately $153. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.