MODEL VERDICT
Dave Inc. (DAVE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $272.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $274.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $250.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $230.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $185.41 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $176.32 | -35.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $46.95 | -82.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $264.93 | -2.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $154.38 | -43.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $48.91 | -82.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $261.79 | -4.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $112.41 | -58.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $67.22 | -75.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $240.70 | -11.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $61.91 | -77.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $165.76 | -39.2% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $225 | $253 | $281 | $310 | $338 |
| Conservative (7%) | $231 | $259 | $288 | $317 | $346 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $238 | $268 | $298 | $327 | $357 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $246 | $276 | $307 | $338 | $369 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 8.22 | 9.62 | 3.98 | 11.07 | 3.75 |
| P/TBV | 28.50 | 7.09 | 1.14 | 123.45 | 53.20 |
| P/B Ratio | 23.25 | 6.56 | 1.03 | 98.43 | 42.17 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.11 | 3.46 | 0.39 | 24.92 | 10.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates DAVE's fair value at $165.76 vs the current price of $272.65, implying -39.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $165.76 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $117.89 (P10) to $193.35 (P90), with a median of $154.43.
DAVE's current P/E of 20.2x compares to the industry median of 19.6x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +2.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Fair Value.
11 analysts cover DAVE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $309.25 (range: $274.00 — $345.00), implying +13.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for DAVE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.