MODEL VERDICT
DoubleDown Interactive Co., Ltd. (DDI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $10.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $8.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $8.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $8.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $8.61 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $109.16 | +893.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 3 industry peers | $65.45 | +495.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 1 industry peers | $243.01 | +2111.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 2 industry peers | $53.00 | +382.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 2 industry peers | $92.76 | +744.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 2 industry peers | $60.51 | +450.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $35.99 | +227.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 3 industry peers | $27.19 | +147.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 3 industry peers | $19.59 | +78.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 1 industry peers | $120.93 | +1000.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 2 industry peers | $53.72 | +388.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $72.77 | +562.1% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 5× (Current) | 7× | 9× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $9 | $9 | $11 | $15 | $19 |
| Conservative (7%) | $9 | $9 | $11 | $16 | $20 |
| Base Case (11.3%) | $9 | $9 | $12 | $16 | $21 |
| Bull Case (15%) | $10 | $10 | $12 | $17 | $21 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 5.27 | 4.17 | 3.62 | 9.12 | 2.58 |
| EV/EBIT | 2.14 | 1.43 | 0.61 | 5.08 | 2.00 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.07 | 1.61 | 0.57 | 4.47 | 1.68 |
| P/FCF | 7.52 | 7.45 | 3.13 | 15.25 | 4.89 |
| P/FFO | 4.70 | 3.95 | 3.49 | 7.43 | 1.83 |
| P/TBV | 1.92 | 1.30 | 0.96 | 4.05 | 1.25 |
| P/AFFO | 4.72 | 3.97 | 3.49 | 7.45 | 1.84 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.45 | 0.83 | 0.15 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.43 | 1.30 | 1.18 | 1.97 | 0.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates DDI's fair value at $72.77 vs the current price of $10.99, implying +562.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $72.77 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $64.77 (P10) to $83.37 (P90), with a median of $73.98.
DDI's current P/E of 5.3x compares to the industry median of 117.4x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -95.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 5.3x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
3 analysts cover DDI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $16.00 (range: $16.00 — $16.00), implying +45.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (18), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: DDI trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (5.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DDI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (10.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6310.0% to approximately $4. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.