MODEL VERDICT
Donegal Group Inc. (DGICA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $16.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $17.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $17.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $17.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $17.30 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $27.54 | +67.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $35.60 | +116.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $20.08 | +22.4% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $40.01 | +143.8% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $27.07 | +65.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $38.85 | +136.7% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $41.54 | +153.1% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $23.62 | +43.9% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $32.01 | +95.1% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $9 | $13 | $18 | $22 | $27 |
| Conservative (5%) | $9 | $14 | $18 | $23 | $27 |
| Base Case (3.6%) | $9 | $14 | $18 | $23 | $27 |
| Bull Case (5%) | $9 | $14 | $18 | $23 | $27 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.60 | 9.64 | 7.69 | 99.93 | 36.59 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.76 | 7.46 | 6.23 | 83.55 | 30.88 |
| EV/EBITDA | 67.71 | 7.46 | 5.74 | 385.62 | 141.11 |
| P/FCF | 7.85 | 6.77 | 4.10 | 16.22 | 4.00 |
| P/FFO | 36.69 | 9.35 | 6.96 | 157.59 | 55.80 |
| P/TBV | 1.03 | 1.10 | 0.81 | 1.16 | 0.12 |
| P/AFFO | 17.05 | 8.11 | 6.97 | 53.25 | 20.25 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.91 | 0.94 | 0.80 | 0.97 | 0.07 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.54 | 0.53 | 0.50 | 0.64 | 0.04 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates DGICA's fair value at $32.01 vs the current price of $16.41, implying +95.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $32.01 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $23.87 (P10) to $49.38 (P90), with a median of $34.43.
DGICA's current P/E of 7.5x compares to the industry median of 12.6x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -40.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.6x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover DGICA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 8.1% is 4.1 percentage points above the 6-year average (4.0%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$28. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DGICA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (4.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6880.0% to approximately $28. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.