MODEL VERDICT
Diversified Healthcare Trust (DHC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $6.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $6.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $6.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $6.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $5.40 | Pending | +17.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 15 industry peers | $20.88 | +208.9% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 16 industry peers | $11.80 | +74.6% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $53.02 | +684.3% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 15 industry peers | $40.79 | +503.4% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $16.02 | +137.0% | 100% | 67 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 23.83 | 19.92 | 8.65 | 46.84 | 17.01 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.22 | 7.08 | 4.76 | 17.36 | 4.78 |
| P/FCF | 25.96 | 6.86 | 4.91 | 85.21 | 39.51 |
| P/FFO | 5.16 | 4.80 | 0.69 | 10.34 | 4.72 |
| P/TBV | 0.42 | 0.39 | 0.06 | 0.79 | 0.25 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.40 | 0.37 | 0.06 | 0.70 | 0.23 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.71 | 0.60 | 0.12 | 1.93 | 0.58 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates DHC's fair value at $16.02 vs the current price of $6.76, implying +137.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $16.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.35 (P10) to $21.96 (P90), with a median of $18.57.
DHC's current P/E of -5.7x compares to the industry median of 39.6x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -114.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
17 analysts cover DHC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $5.00 (range: $5.00 — $5.00), implying -26.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (11), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for DHC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.