Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$17.68
→
Intrinsic$33.31
+88%
$18.16$33.31$62.06
Market implies 10% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests DOC could have 88% upside at 20% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $18, the market prices in 10% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (20%).
Range: Bear $18 → Bull $62. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 16% | 18% | 20% | 22% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $44 | $49 | $54 | $59 |
| 10% | $26 | $30 | $33 | $37 |
| 12% | $17 | $19 | $22 | $25 |
| 14% | $11 | $13 | $15 | $17 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($62) offers 251% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (10%) ≤ historical CAGR (20%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($18) with 16% growth, 12% discount rate
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5-Year FFO Projection
Year 1$1.36B
Year 2$1.63B
Year 3$1.95B
Year 4$2.34B
Year 5$2.81B
Terminal$41.38B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$1.13BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.