...

Healthpeak Properties, Inc. (DOC) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

Popular:

Healthpeak Properties, Inc. (DOC)

View Full Profile →

Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$17.55
→
Intrinsic$54.79
+212%
$33.10$54.79$95.94
Market implies 5% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests DOC could have 212% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $18, the market prices in only 5% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $33 → Bull $96. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →21%23%25%27%
8%$70$77$84$92
10%$45$50$55$60
12%$31$35$38$42
14%$23$25$28$31

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($96) offers 447% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (5%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($33) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
  • Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
Loading charts...

5-Year FFO Projection

Year 1$1.63B
Year 2$2.03B
Year 3$2.54B
Year 4$3.17B
Year 5$3.97B
Terminal$58.39B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$1.30BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.

Related Analysis

Full Stock ProfileCompare DOC vs OStock Screener

Frequently Asked Questions

Is DOC stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

DOC trades at $17.55 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $43.13, implying +161% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 25.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of DOC's future cash flows. The bear case ($23.76) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is DOC's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $1.30B, projected at 25.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $8.90B net debt and dividing by 0.68B shares: Bear $23.76 | Base $43.13 | Bull $71.65. Current price $17.55 implies +161% to base case.

How is DOC's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 25.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($38.07B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 29.3x.