Upside case
Bull case
$494+58.2%
DPZ would need investors to value it at roughly 26x earnings — about 9x more generous than today's 16x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
52
analysts
28 bullish · 1 bearish · 52 covering DPZ
Strong Buy
0
Buy
28
Hold
23
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$426
+36.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$236 – $494
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
52
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
16.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.5B
DPZ price targets
Three scenarios for where DPZ stock could go
Current
~$312
Confidence
59 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $312
Bear
$236
Base
$375
Bull
$494
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$375+20.1%
At 20x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$236-24.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push DPZ down roughly 24% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Domino's Pizza, Inc.
DPZ · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalRestaurantsDecember year-end
Domino's Pizza is a global pizza delivery and carryout chain operating through franchised and company-owned stores. It generates revenue primarily from franchise royalties and fees (about 60% of operating income), supply chain sales to franchisees (35%), and company-owned store sales (5%). The company's key advantage is its technology-driven delivery system — including proprietary ordering platforms and store-level efficiency tools — which creates a superior delivery experience and operational scale.
Market Cap
$10.5B
Revenue TTM
$5.0B
Net Income TTM
$592M
Net Margin
11.9%
DPZ Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.81/$3.93
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.08/$3.96
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$5.35/$5.38
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$4.13/$4.29
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.81/$3.93 | -3.1% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +0.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.08/$3.96 | +3.0% | $1.1B/$1.5B | -24.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.35/$5.38 | -0.6% | $1.5B/$1.5B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.13/$4.29 | -3.7% | $1.2B/$1.2B | -1.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.2B
+4.8% YoY
FY2
$5.4B
+4.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$18.99
+8.5% YoY
FY2
$20.35
+7.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$654M
FCF Margin: 13.1%
Next Earnings
July 20, 2026
Expected EPS
$4.25
Expected Revenue
$1.2B
DPZ beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
DPZ Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Supply Chain
60.5%
+5.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Domestic Stores
82.6%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Supply Chain is the largest disclosed segment at 60.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.1% YoY.
Domestic Stores is the largest reported region at 82.6%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
DPZ Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $417 — implies +33.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
33.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
DPZ
17.8x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
27% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
DPZ
17.8x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
16% discount
vs DPZ 5Y Avg P/E
Today
17.8x
vs
5Y Average
29.5x
40% discount
Forward PE
16.3x
S&P 500
18.8x
-14%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
-0%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
17.8x
S&P 500
24.4x
-27%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
-16%
5Y Avg
29.5x
-40%
PEG Ratio
2.46x
S&P 500
1.66x
+48%
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
+166%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
-4%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+20%
5Y Avg
22.6x
-35%
Price/FCF
15.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
-24%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+1%
5Y Avg
30.2x
-48%
Price/Sales
2.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-31%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+205%
5Y Avg
3.4x
-38%
Dividend Yield
2.21%
S&P 500
1.91%
+16%
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
+2%
5Y Avg
1.22%
+81%
| Metric | DPZ | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg DPZ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 16.3x | 18.8x-14% | 16.3x | — |
| Trailing PE | 17.8x | 24.4x-27% | 21.2x-16% | 29.5x-40% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.46x | 1.66x+48% | 0.92x+166% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.6x | 15.2x | 12.2x+20% | 22.6x-35% |
| Price/FCF | 15.6x | 20.7x-24% | 15.6x | 30.2x-48% |
| Price/Sales | 2.1x | 3.1x-31% | 0.7x+205% | 3.4x-38% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.21% | 1.91% | 2.17% | 1.22% |
DPZ trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolDPZ Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
DPZ generates $654M in free cash flow at a 13.1% margin — 73.5% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 5.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$5.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+5.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
40.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
19.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
11.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$17.50
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$654M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
13.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
73.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
33.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$434M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
7.3× FCF
~7.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.6%
Dividend
2.2%
Buyback
3.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$358M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$6.92
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
39.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
34M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageDPZ Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
Macroeconomic Risks
Inflation and consumer spending restraint pose downside pressure on Domino's Pizza's performance.
Lower
Valuation Concerns
Investors may struggle to determine if Domino's Pizza stock is undervalued or overpriced, despite mid-case valuation models suggesting upside.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why DPZ Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Franchise-driven model
The company's franchise-driven model is highlighted as a key strength, contributing to scalability and consistent performance.
Strong unit economics
Domino's Pizza, Inc. benefits from strong unit economics, which enhance profitability and operational efficiency.
Consistent free cash flow
The company has demonstrated consistent free cash flow growth, supporting financial stability and potential reinvestment.
Digital ordering growth
Domino's emphasis on online ordering and digital platforms drives customer convenience and sales growth.
Global expansion potential
The company's presence in markets like Georgia indicates ongoing global expansion opportunities.
Bullish investor sentiment
Multiple bullish theses highlight investor confidence in Domino's long-term growth and market position.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
DPZ Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$312.47
52W Range Position
8%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$297.48
+5.0% from the low
52-Week High
$496.00
-37.0% from the high
1 Month
+1.45%
3 Month
-17.10%
YTD
-26.5%
1 Year
-30.1%
3Y CAGR
-1.4%
5Y CAGR
-7.5%
10Y CAGR
+9.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
DPZ vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
16.3x
vs 21.5x median
-24% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.8%
vs +4.2% median
+14% above peer median
Net Margin
11.9%
vs 10.0% median
+19% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DPZ DPZ Domino's Pizza, Inc. | $10.5B | 16.3x | +4.8% | 11.9% | Buy | +36.3% |
YUM YUM Yum! Brands, Inc. | $42.0B | 22.4x | +6.4% | 20.5% | Hold | +17.1% |
MCD MCD McDonald's Corporation | $198.0B | 21.5x | +4.2% | 31.6% | Buy | +24.7% |
QSR QSR Restaurant Brands International Inc. | $25.4B | 18.1x | +7.3% | 10.0% | Buy | +14.0% |
PZZ PZZA Papa John's International, Inc. | $1.2B | 24.6x | +2.5% | 1.8% | Buy | +4.2% |
JAC JACK Jack in the Box Inc. | $244M | 3.8x | -1.2% | 2.8% | Hold | +26.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
DPZ Dividend and Capital Return
DPZ returns capital mainly through $358M/year in buybacks (3.4% buyback yield), with a modest 2.21% dividend — combining for 5.6% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 12 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.4%
Dividend Yield
2.21%
Payout Ratio
39.4%
How DPZ Splits Its Return
Div 2.21%
Buyback 3.4%
Dividend 2.21%Buybacks 3.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$6.92
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
12Y
3Y Div CAGR
16.5%
5Y Div CAGR
17.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$358M
Estimated Shares Retired
1M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
34M
At 3.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $3.98 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $6.96 | +15.2% | 2.5% | 4.1% |
| 2024 | $6.04 | +24.8% | 2.2% | 3.6% |
| 2023 | $4.84 | +10.0% | 1.8% | 3.0% |
| 2022 | $4.40 | +17.0% | 2.3% | 3.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsDPZ Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 52 analysts covering the stock, 28 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 23 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $426, implying +36.3% from the current price of $312. The bear case scenario is $236 and the bull case is $494.
02What is the DPZ stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for DPZ is $426 based on 52 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $540 (+72.8% from today), and the low-end target is $315 (+0.8%). The base case model target is $375.
03Is Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) stock overvalued in 2026?
DPZ trades at 16.3x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for DPZ in 2026 are: (1) Macroeconomic Risks — Inflation and consumer spending restraint pose downside pressure on Domino's Pizza's performance. (2) Valuation Concerns — Investors may struggle to determine if Domino's Pizza stock is undervalued or overpriced, despite mid-case valuation models suggesting upside. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Domino's Pizza, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates DPZ will report consensus revenue of $5.2B (+4.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $18.99 (+8.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.4B in revenue.
06When does Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) report its next earnings?
Domino's Pizza, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-20. Consensus expects EPS of $4.25 and revenue of $1.2B. Over recent quarters, DPZ has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Domino's Pizza, Inc. generate?
Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) generated $654M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 13.1%. DPZ returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.2% yield) and share repurchases ($358M TTM).