Upside case
Bull case
$486+49.8%
DPZ would need investors to value it at roughly 25x earnings — about 8x more generous than today's 17x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
52
analysts
28 bullish · 1 bearish · 52 covering DPZ
Strong Buy
0
Buy
28
Hold
23
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$427
+31.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$285 – $486
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
52
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
16.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.9B
DPZ price targets
Three scenarios for where DPZ stock could go
Current
~$325
Confidence
71 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $325
Bear
$285
Base
$379
Bull
$486
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$379+16.8%
At 20x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$285-12.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push DPZ down roughly 12% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Domino's Pizza, Inc.
DPZ · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalRestaurantsDecember year-end
Domino's Pizza is a global pizza delivery and carryout chain operating through franchised and company-owned stores. It generates revenue primarily from franchise royalties and fees (about 60% of operating income), supply chain sales to franchisees (35%), and company-owned store sales (5%). The company's key advantage is its technology-driven delivery system — including proprietary ordering platforms and store-level efficiency tools — which creates a superior delivery experience and operational scale.
Market Cap
$10.9B
Revenue TTM
$5.0B
Net Income TTM
$592M
Net Margin
11.9%
DPZ Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.81/$3.93
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.08/$3.96
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$5.35/$5.38
Revenue
$1.5B/$1.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$4.13/$4.29
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.81/$3.93 | -3.1% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +0.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.08/$3.96 | +3.0% | $1.1B/$1.5B | -24.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.35/$5.38 | -0.6% | $1.5B/$1.5B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.13/$4.29 | -3.7% | $1.2B/$1.2B | -1.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.2B
+4.6% YoY
FY2
$5.4B
+3.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$19.10
+9.1% YoY
FY2
$20.52
+7.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$654M
FCF Margin: 13.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
DPZ beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
DPZ Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Supply Chain
60.5%
+5.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Domestic Stores
82.6%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Supply Chain is the largest disclosed segment at 60.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.1% YoY.
Domestic Stores is the largest reported region at 82.6%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
DPZ Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $499 — implies +47.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
47.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
DPZ
18.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
27% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
DPZ
18.5x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
6% discount
vs DPZ 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.5x
vs
5Y Average
29.5x
37% discount
Forward PE
16.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
-12%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
+11%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
-27%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
-6%
5Y Avg
29.5x
-37%
PEG Ratio
2.55x
S&P 500
1.75x
+46%
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
+168%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.0x
S&P 500
15.3x
-2%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
+32%
5Y Avg
22.6x
-34%
Price/FCF
16.3x
S&P 500
21.3x
-24%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
+8%
5Y Avg
30.2x
-46%
Price/Sales
2.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-29%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+211%
5Y Avg
3.4x
-35%
Dividend Yield
2.13%
S&P 500
1.88%
+13%
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
-1%
5Y Avg
1.22%
+74%
| Metric | DPZ | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg DPZ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 16.8x | 19.1x-12% | 15.2x+11% | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.5x | 25.2x-27% | 19.6x | 29.5x-37% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.55x | 1.75x+46% | 0.95x+168% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.0x | 15.3x | 11.4x+32% | 22.6x-34% |
| Price/FCF | 16.3x | 21.3x-24% | 15.0x | 30.2x-46% |
| Price/Sales | 2.2x | 3.1x-29% | 0.7x+211% | 3.4x-35% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.13% | 1.88% | 2.15% | 1.22% |
DPZ trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolDPZ Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
DPZ generates $654M in free cash flow at a 13.1% margin — 73.5% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 5.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$5.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+5.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
40.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
19.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
11.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$17.50
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$654M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
13.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
73.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
33.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$434M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
7.3× FCF
~7.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.4%
Dividend
2.1%
Buyback
3.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$358M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$6.92
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
39.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
34M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageDPZ Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Rising Input Costs
In Q1 2026, food costs rose to 30.4% and labor costs to 33.2% in U.S. company-owned stores, significantly impacting gross margins. Increases in other operational costs such as rent, transportation, insurance, and energy can further adversely affect profitability.
High Risk
Macroeconomic Volatility and Inflation
DPZ faces risks from macroeconomic volatility, with inflation accelerating to 3.3% in early 2026. This situation can be worsened by global market volatility, tariff wars, and rising oil prices, leading to increased fuel costs and overall price levels.
High Risk
Valuation and Stock Price Fluctuations
The company's operational performance may decline rapidly due to changes in order patterns or cost pressures, potentially leading to significant fluctuations in its stock price. Analysts have issued short recommendations, predicting a potential decline of 20% from current prices due to expected misses in U.S. comparable sales.
Medium
Labor Shortages and Costs
Increased labor costs and shortages can hinder Domino's ability to attract and retain qualified employees, impacting its operational capabilities and growth. This risk is particularly pronounced in the current labor market.
Medium
Intense Competition
The quick-service restaurant (QSR) pizza category and broader food service markets are highly competitive, which could adversely affect Domino's operating results. Increased competition may lead to pricing pressures and reduced market share.
Medium
Dependence on Franchising
Domino's profitability is significantly tied to the performance of its franchisees. Any decline in franchisee performance could adversely affect the company's overall financial health.
Lower
Changing Consumer Preferences
Shifts in consumer preferences and perceptions can impact demand in the food service market. As consumer tastes evolve, Domino's may need to adapt its offerings to maintain market relevance.
Lower
Foreign Currency Exchange Fluctuations
With approximately 7% of total revenues coming from international franchises, DPZ is exposed to risks from foreign currency exchange fluctuations. This can affect profitability from its international operations.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why DPZ Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Asset-Light, Franchise-Driven Model
Domino's operates with a highly franchised model, meaning franchisees bear most of the store-level risks, while the company collects royalties and supply chain profits. Over 98% of its global stores are franchised, allowing for high-margin growth with minimal capital intensity.
Consistent Financial Growth
The company has a history of increasing total revenues, profits, EPS, and EBITDA at impressive compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) over the past decade. In 2025, Domino's reported revenue of $4.94 billion, a 4.96% increase from the previous year, with earnings of $601.70 million, a 3.00% increase.
Technological Innovation and Digital Presence
Domino's has been a pioneer in digital ordering, with over 70% of U.S. sales coming from digital channels. Innovations like the Pinpoint Delivery system and delivery services through Apple CarPlay enhance customer convenience and maintain a competitive edge.
Strong Brand and Global Scale
Domino's is the largest pizza company globally, with a significant international presence in over 90 markets. This scale provides strong brand recognition and supplier leverage, enabling investments in technology that smaller competitors cannot match.
Shareholder Returns
Management has consistently rewarded shareholders through stock buybacks, reducing outstanding shares significantly over the past decade. The company also offers a meaningful dividend, which has been increasing for 12 consecutive years, with a sustainable payout ratio.
Operational Efficiency and Profitability
Domino's maintains an efficient business with a high Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of over 71%. Operating margins have expanded from 16.5% in fiscal 2022 to 19.3% in fiscal 2025, reflecting the benefits of its royalty-heavy, asset-light model.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
DPZ Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$324.66
52W Range Position
1%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$322.17
+0.8% from the low
52-Week High
$499.08
-34.9% from the high
1 Month
-14.74%
3 Month
-17.78%
YTD
-23.7%
1 Year
-32.3%
3Y CAGR
+1.7%
5Y CAGR
-5.5%
10Y CAGR
+10.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
DPZ vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
16.8x
vs 21.5x median
-22% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.6%
vs +7.0% median
-35% below peer median
Net Margin
11.9%
vs 10.0% median
+19% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DPZ DPZ Domino's Pizza, Inc. | $10.9B | 16.8x | +4.6% | 11.9% | Buy | +31.5% |
YUM YUM Yum! Brands, Inc. | $43.1B | 23.1x | +7.8% | 20.5% | Hold | +11.8% |
MCD MCD McDonald's Corporation | $202.3B | 21.5x | +7.0% | 32.0% | Buy | +24.0% |
QSR QSR Restaurant Brands International Inc. | $26.7B | 19.0x | +10.7% | 10.0% | Buy | +8.5% |
PZZ PZZA Papa John's International, Inc. | $1.1B | 22.2x | -1.9% | 3.1% | Buy | +16.4% |
JAC JACK Jack in the Box Inc. | $261M | 4.0x | -7.0% | -5.2% | Hold | +46.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
DPZ Dividend and Capital Return
DPZ returns capital mainly through $358M/year in buybacks (3.3% buyback yield), with a modest 2.13% dividend — combining for 5.4% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 12 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.3%
Dividend Yield
2.13%
Payout Ratio
39.4%
How DPZ Splits Its Return
Div 2.13%
Buyback 3.3%
Dividend 2.13%Buybacks 3.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$6.92
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
12Y
3Y Div CAGR
16.5%
5Y Div CAGR
17.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$358M
Estimated Shares Retired
1M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
34M
At 3.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $3.98 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $6.96 | +15.2% | 2.5% | 4.1% |
| 2024 | $6.04 | +24.8% | 2.2% | 3.6% |
| 2023 | $4.84 | +10.0% | 1.8% | 3.0% |
| 2022 | $4.40 | +17.0% | 2.3% | 3.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsDPZ Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 52 analysts covering the stock, 28 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 23 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $427, implying +31.5% from the current price of $325. The bear case scenario is $285 and the bull case is $486.
02What is the DPZ stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for DPZ is $427 based on 52 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $540 (+66.3% from today), and the low-end target is $315 (-3.0%). The base case model target is $379.
03Is Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) stock overvalued in 2026?
DPZ trades at 16.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for DPZ in 2026 are: (1) Rising Input Costs — In Q1 2026, food costs rose to 30. (2) Macroeconomic Volatility and Inflation — DPZ faces risks from macroeconomic volatility, with inflation accelerating to 3. (3) Valuation and Stock Price Fluctuations — The company's operational performance may decline rapidly due to changes in order patterns or cost pressures, potentially leading to significant fluctuations in its stock price. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Domino's Pizza, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates DPZ will report consensus revenue of $5.2B (+4.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $19.10 (+9.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.4B in revenue.
06When does Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for DPZ is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Domino's Pizza, Inc. generate?
Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) generated $654M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 13.1%. DPZ returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.1% yield) and share repurchases ($358M TTM).