MODEL VERDICT
The Descartes Systems Group Inc. (DSGX) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $66.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $67.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $65.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $69.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $87.46 | Below threshold | -22.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $38.05 | -42.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $71.02 | +7.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $42.58 | -35.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $47.53 | -28.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $54.42 | -17.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $46.65 | -29.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 32 industry peers | $81.82 | +23.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $30.23 | -54.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $26.58 | -59.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $45.05 | -32.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $47.59 | -28.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $67.54 | +1.9% | 100% | 89 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 34× | 37× | 40× (Current) | 43× | 46× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $62 | $68 | $73 | $79 | $84 |
| Conservative (19%) | $66 | $72 | $78 | $84 | $90 |
| Base Case (29.5%) | $72 | $79 | $85 | $91 | $98 |
| Bull Case (40%) | $78 | $85 | $92 | $99 | $105 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 75.81 | 69.27 | 59.03 | 95.87 | 15.30 |
| EV/EBIT | 56.13 | 51.39 | 43.39 | 68.40 | 11.07 |
| EV/EBITDA | 33.29 | 33.44 | 23.87 | 41.53 | 5.84 |
| P/FCF | 37.13 | 36.11 | 28.26 | 46.68 | 6.07 |
| P/FFO | 39.33 | 40.12 | 27.08 | 47.65 | 6.98 |
| P/TBV | 52.06 | 45.75 | 31.05 | 86.21 | 22.18 |
| P/AFFO | 40.90 | 41.39 | 29.09 | 49.24 | 6.81 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.62 | 5.50 | 3.86 | 7.16 | 1.26 |
| P/S Ratio | 12.84 | 12.74 | 7.48 | 16.78 | 3.07 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates DSGX's fair value at $67.54 vs the current price of $66.25, implying +1.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $67.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $57.42 (P10) to $73.51 (P90), with a median of $65.32.
DSGX's current P/E of 40.4x compares to the industry median of 26.0x (71 peers in the group). This represents a +55.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 75.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
13 analysts cover DSGX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $110.89 (range: $95.00 — $126.00), implying +67.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 22.1% is 4.8 percentage points above the 7-year average (17.3%), with a Z-score of +1.0σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$98. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DSGX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (17.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4720.0% to approximately $98. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.