MODEL VERDICT
Eastern Bankshares, Inc. (EBC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $20.06 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $20.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $19.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $21.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $20.68 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $5.69 | -71.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $23.90 | +19.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $22.65 | +12.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $17.59 | -12.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $5.69 | -71.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $20.11 | +0.2% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $16.87 | -15.9% | 100% | 82 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 42× | 46× | 50× (Current) | 54× | 58× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $18 | $20 | $22 | $24 | $26 |
| Conservative (16%) | $20 | $21 | $23 | $25 | $27 |
| Base Case (25.2%) | $21 | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 |
| Bull Case (34%) | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 | $31 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 40.71 | 24.27 | 9.93 | 125.46 | 43.37 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.39 | 14.33 | 12.94 | 39.03 | 10.98 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.77 | 12.16 | 11.23 | 25.95 | 6.29 |
| P/FCF | 17.86 | 12.27 | 9.10 | 43.31 | 13.13 |
| P/FFO | 24.15 | 19.73 | 9.01 | 55.33 | 16.65 |
| P/TBV | 1.20 | 1.24 | 0.92 | 1.50 | 0.22 |
| P/AFFO | 26.51 | 20.99 | 9.31 | 61.58 | 18.99 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.93 | 0.89 | 0.78 | 1.16 | 0.14 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.41 | 4.16 | 2.94 | 6.64 | 1.25 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates EBC's fair value at $16.87 vs the current price of $20.06, implying -15.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $16.87 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.99 (P10) to $19.51 (P90), with a median of $16.37.
EBC's current P/E of 50.1x compares to the industry median of 14.2x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +252.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 40.7x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
7 analysts cover EBC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $22.83 (range: $22.00 — $24.00), implying +13.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: EBC trades at the 9920th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (40.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EBC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (20.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 10190.0% to approximately $41. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.