MODEL VERDICT
Ecopetrol S.A. (EC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $13.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $13.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $13.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $13.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $14.10 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $66725.05 | +479246.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 13 industry peers | $88244.74 | +633842.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $79927.15 | +574089.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 12 industry peers | $120392.09 | +864785.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 13 industry peers | $128689.51 | +924393.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 12 industry peers | $95954.68 | +689229.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $67760.30 | +486683.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 13 industry peers | $36431.78 | +261622.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 13 industry peers | $51883.79 | +372628.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $85948.08 | +617343.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 12 industry peers | $120217.38 | +863530.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $69270.10 | +497530.0% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (15%) | $37529 | $46911 | $56293 | $65676 | $75058 |
| Conservative (25%) | $40608 | $50759 | $60911 | $71063 | $81215 |
| Base Case (37.8%) | $44927 | $56159 | $67391 | $78623 | $89854 |
| Bull Case (51%) | $49231 | $61539 | $73846 | $86154 | $98462 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| EV/EBIT | 2.78 | 2.61 | 1.39 | 5.19 | 1.36 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.88 | 1.97 | 1.05 | 2.52 | 0.55 |
| P/FCF | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/FFO | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/TBV | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/AFFO | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Div Yield | 457.62 | 333.13 | 112.80 | 1032.47 | 317.10 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates EC's fair value at $69270.10 vs the current price of $13.92, implying +497530.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $69270.10 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $51860.48 (P10) to $69385.57 (P90), with a median of $60516.26.
EC's current P/E of 12.5x compares to the industry median of 19.6x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -36.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.0x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover EC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $10.35 (range: $8.70 — $12.00), implying -25.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (6), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: EC trades at the 710th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (29.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 31590.0% to approximately $58. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.