MODEL VERDICT
Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $11.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $12.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $11.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $12.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $10.87 | Pending | +13.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 16 analyst estimates | $56403.74 | +474279.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 16 industry peers | $85484.95 | +718865.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 15 industry peers | $107724.66 | +905910.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 15 industry peers | $215546.66 | +1812739.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 16 industry peers | $146528.57 | +1232268.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 16 industry peers | $188320.43 | +1583755.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 16 industry peers | $44616.01 | +375139.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 16 industry peers | $69925.19 | +588000.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 16 industry peers | $109635.44 | +921981.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 16 industry peers | $224094.14 | +1884627.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $90435.71 | +760503.1% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $27467 | $34333 | $48066 | $61800 | $75533 |
| Conservative (5%) | $28274 | $35343 | $49480 | $63617 | $77755 |
| Base Case (-1.0%) | $26659 | $33323 | $46653 | $59982 | $73311 |
| Bull Case (-1%) | $26578 | $33222 | $46511 | $59800 | $73089 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| EV/EBIT | 2.40 | 2.03 | 1.34 | 5.19 | 1.34 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.67 | 1.68 | 1.05 | 2.52 | 0.55 |
| P/FCF | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/FFO | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/TBV | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/AFFO | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Div Yield | 403.22 | 305.42 | 112.80 | 1032.47 | 334.66 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 24 valuation metrics, the model estimates EC's fair value at $90435.71 vs the current price of $11.89, implying +760503.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $90435.71 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $67409.48 (P10) to $90438.17 (P90), with a median of $78777.80.
EC's current P/E of 6.6x compares to the industry median of 16.0x (15 peers in the group). This represents a -58.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.0x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover EC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $10.35 (range: $8.70 — $12.00), implying -13.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (6), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: EC trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (30.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 69260.0% to approximately $94. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.