Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) — Estimates & Forecasts
Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
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Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $31.60T | $21.06T | $13.84T | $12.11T | $13.84T | $15.56T | $16.17T |
| EPS (Diluted) | $16249.00 | $9272.15 | $6732.00 | $5889.08 | $6730.78 | $7568.95 | $7864.18 |
| YoY Growth | — | -33.4% | -34.3% | -12.5% | +14.3% | +12.5% | +3.9% |
| Net Margin | 19.8% | 14.7% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 12.1% |
| Metric | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $133.33T | $126.29T | $130.62T | $134.13T | $133.24T |
| Net Income | $13.84T | $12.11T | $13.84T | $15.56T | $16.17T |
| EPS (Diluted) | $6732.00 | $5889.08 | $6730.78 | $7568.95 | $7864.18 |
| Free Cash Flow | $32.54T | $14.11T | $16.22T | $17.83T | $18.53T |
Treat point estimates cautiously; use wider scenario ranges and position sizing discipline.
Ecopetrol S.A.'s projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $5889.08. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 38/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for Ecopetrol S.A.: Bear case $19648, Base case $44748, and Bull case $136458. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
Ecopetrol S.A.'s projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is 0.5%, reaching approximately $126294.8B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 38/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Currently expanding margins support higher forecast reliability. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
Ecopetrol S.A.'s forward operating margin is estimated at 26.5% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "expanding". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
The bear case ($19648) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
Our model is above Wall Street consensus with a 33.8% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 15% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.