MODEL VERDICT
Eagle Point Credit Company Inc. 6.6875% NT 28 (ECCX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $25.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $25.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $25.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $25.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $25.13 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $22.42 | -10.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 5 industry peers | $11.93 | -52.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 5 bank peers | $12.24 | -51.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 3 industry peers | $26.92 | +7.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $20.82 | -17.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.29 | -27.3% | 100% | 86 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 27× | 29× (Current) | 31× | 33× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $22 | $24 | $26 | $28 | $30 |
| Conservative (7%) | $23 | $25 | $27 | $28 | $30 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $24 | $26 | $27 | $29 | $31 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $24 | $26 | $28 | $30 | $32 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.65 | 13.55 | 7.22 | 28.28 | 8.94 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.67 | 14.63 | 8.17 | 29.25 | 8.92 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.67 | 14.63 | 8.17 | 29.25 | 8.92 |
| P/FCF | 150.46 | 22.29 | 18.96 | 661.82 | 285.87 |
| P/TBV | 2.20 | 2.23 | 1.81 | 2.43 | 0.22 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.20 | 2.23 | 1.81 | 2.43 | 0.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 27.89 | 11.85 | 6.12 | 91.04 | 35.63 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 9 valuation metrics, the model estimates ECCX's fair value at $18.29 vs the current price of $25.15, implying -27.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.29 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.08 (P10) to $23.74 (P90), with a median of $19.15.
ECCX's current P/E of 29.2x compares to the industry median of 26.1x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +12.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.7x over 4 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
No analyst coverage data is available for ECCX.
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ECCX trades at the 7840th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (15.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ECCX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.5σ, meaning margins are 1.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (80.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3790.0% to approximately $16. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.