MODEL VERDICT
Euronet Worldwide, Inc. (EEFT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $69.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $72.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $67.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $74.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $75.31 | Pending | -3.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $171.48 | +146.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 55 industry peers | $236.28 | +239.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 45 industry peers | $148.18 | +113.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $192.03 | +176.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $187.83 | +170.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $202.98 | +191.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $280.02 | +302.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $251.99 | +262.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 50 industry peers | $166.88 | +139.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $199.25 | +186.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $207.70 | +198.6% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $46 | $59 | $72 | $86 | $99 |
| Conservative (5%) | $47 | $61 | $74 | $88 | $102 |
| Base Case (0.4%) | $45 | $58 | $71 | $84 | $97 |
| Bull Case (1%) | $45 | $58 | $71 | $84 | $97 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 32.51 | 22.72 | 15.94 | 90.28 | 28.50 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.66 | 14.19 | 10.15 | 48.32 | 13.48 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.50 | 11.17 | 8.04 | 42.64 | 12.14 |
| P/FCF | 19.64 | 19.64 | 7.83 | 48.96 | 14.43 |
| P/FFO | 23.68 | 16.51 | 11.29 | 61.73 | 18.02 |
| P/TBV | 30.34 | 18.73 | 13.50 | 93.79 | 31.24 |
| P/AFFO | 64.52 | 24.71 | 15.42 | 293.58 | 101.94 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.66 | 4.54 | 4.02 | 5.48 | 0.61 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.10 | 2.13 | 1.24 | 3.15 | 0.78 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates EEFT's fair value at $207.70 vs the current price of $69.55, implying +198.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $207.70 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $163.09 (P10) to $252.48 (P90), with a median of $206.18.
EEFT's current P/E of 10.8x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -53.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 32.5x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
23 analysts cover EEFT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $100.75 (range: $80.00 — $133.00), implying +44.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (6), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EEFT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (6.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 17520.0% to approximately $191. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.