MODEL VERDICT
EastGroup Properties, Inc. (EGP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $200.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $197.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $200.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $195.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $193.92 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 8 REIT peers | $112.81 | -43.6% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 6 REIT peers | $101.61 | -49.2% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $132.15 | -34.0% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $155.90 | -22.1% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $106.07 | -47.0% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $136.72 | -31.7% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $214.60 | +7.2% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $130.28 | -34.9% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $111.08 | -44.5% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $161.59 | -19.3% | 100% | 89 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 35× | 38× | 41× (Current) | 44× | 47× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $179 | $194 | $209 | $225 | $240 |
| Conservative (8%) | $184 | $200 | $215 | $231 | $247 |
| Base Case (12.0%) | $191 | $207 | $224 | $240 | $256 |
| Bull Case (16%) | $198 | $215 | $232 | $249 | $266 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 44.59 | 41.52 | 33.96 | 58.42 | 10.56 |
| EV/EBIT | 49.07 | 44.96 | 36.99 | 70.73 | 11.23 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.11 | 19.56 | 15.53 | 27.52 | 3.89 |
| P/FCF | 29.14 | 28.98 | 21.97 | 41.85 | 7.14 |
| P/FFO | 24.00 | 23.49 | 19.87 | 34.41 | 5.16 |
| P/TBV | 3.73 | 3.27 | 2.41 | 5.93 | 1.20 |
| P/AFFO | 28.28 | 28.12 | 22.79 | 39.87 | 5.92 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.69 | 3.24 | 2.38 | 5.85 | 1.18 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 15.09 | 14.69 | 12.29 | 22.47 | 3.43 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates EGP's fair value at $161.59 vs the current price of $200.18, implying -19.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $161.59 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $146.05 (P10) to $179.81 (P90), with a median of $162.75.
EGP's current P/E of 41.1x compares to the industry median of 28.1x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +46.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 44.6x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
33 analysts cover EGP with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $204.73 (range: $172.00 — $230.00), implying +2.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (15), Hold (17), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 39.7% is 5.4 percentage points above the 7-year average (34.3%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$188. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EGP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (34.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 630.0% to approximately $188. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.