MODEL VERDICT
EastGroup Properties, Inc. (EGP) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $196.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $192.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $190.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $192.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $184.06 | Below threshold | +3.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 18 industry peers | $132.56 | -32.5% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 20 industry peers | $135.10 | -31.2% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 23 industry peers | $119.73 | -39.0% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 15 industry peers | $125.39 | -36.1% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $170.37 | -13.2% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 20 industry peers | $123.48 | -37.1% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 20 industry peers | $111.89 | -43.0% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $174.70 | -11.0% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 36× | 39× | 42× (Current) | 45× | 48× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $178 | $193 | $207 | $222 | $237 |
| Conservative (10%) | $184 | $199 | $215 | $230 | $245 |
| Base Case (15.0%) | $193 | $209 | $225 | $241 | $257 |
| Bull Case (20%) | $202 | $218 | $235 | $252 | $269 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 44.63 | 41.52 | 33.96 | 58.42 | 10.53 |
| EV/EBIT | 49.11 | 44.96 | 36.99 | 70.73 | 11.20 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.15 | 18.42 | 15.53 | 27.52 | 4.06 |
| P/FCF | 29.44 | 28.98 | 21.97 | 41.85 | 6.90 |
| P/FFO | 23.90 | 23.49 | 19.38 | 34.41 | 5.25 |
| P/TBV | 3.86 | 3.65 | 2.41 | 5.93 | 1.12 |
| P/AFFO | 28.43 | 28.12 | 22.79 | 39.87 | 5.80 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.81 | 3.60 | 2.38 | 5.85 | 1.10 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 14.76 | 14.69 | 10.89 | 22.47 | 3.74 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates EGP's fair value at $174.70 vs the current price of $196.31, implying -11.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $174.70 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $157.17 (P10) to $202.26 (P90), with a median of $179.27.
EGP's current P/E of 42.1x compares to the industry median of 26.9x (15 peers in the group). This represents a +56.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 44.6x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
33 analysts cover EGP with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $200.38 (range: $172.00 — $230.00), implying +2.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (15), Hold (17), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EGP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (33.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 90.0% to approximately $195. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.