MODEL VERDICT
Smart Share Global Limited (EM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $1.13 | CURRENT | +5.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $7.90 | +599.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $65.01 | +5653.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $43.52 | +3751.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $13.93 | +1132.9% | 100% | 41 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FFO | 0.45 | 0.55 | 0.18 | 0.64 | 0.24 |
| P/TBV | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates EM's fair value at $13.93 vs the current price of $1.13, implying +1132.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 41/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $13.93 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.45 (P10) to $22.80 (P90), with a median of $18.11.
EM's current P/E of -70.5x compares to the industry median of 20.0x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -452.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
3 analysts cover EM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 41/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for EM.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.