MODEL VERDICT
Equinor ASA (EQNR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $29.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $28.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $28.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $27.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $23.50 | Pending | +17.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 16 analyst estimates | $33.67 | +12.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 16 industry peers | $85.27 | +185.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 15 industry peers | $30.71 | +3.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 15 industry peers | $31.39 | +5.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 16 industry peers | $100.12 | +235.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 16 industry peers | $22.74 | -23.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 16 industry peers | $53.43 | +79.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 16 industry peers | $46.69 | +56.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 16 industry peers | $31.76 | +6.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 16 industry peers | $32.63 | +9.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $42.59 | +42.8% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $22 | $26 | $30 | $34 | $39 |
| Conservative (7%) | $23 | $27 | $31 | $35 | $39 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $24 | $28 | $32 | $36 | $41 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $24 | $29 | $33 | $38 | $42 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.99 | 9.03 | 3.97 | 36.20 | 11.69 |
| EV/EBIT | 3.84 | 3.20 | 1.72 | 8.77 | 2.49 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.24 | 2.42 | 1.60 | 7.51 | 2.02 |
| P/FCF | 11.54 | 8.44 | 4.12 | 28.10 | 8.82 |
| P/FFO | 4.19 | 4.22 | 3.21 | 5.52 | 0.73 |
| P/TBV | 2.04 | 2.08 | 1.68 | 2.48 | 0.29 |
| P/AFFO | 22.20 | 10.25 | 4.27 | 69.16 | 24.51 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.80 | 1.61 | 1.52 | 2.20 | 0.29 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.87 | 0.90 | 0.58 | 1.17 | 0.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates EQNR's fair value at $42.59 vs the current price of $29.83, implying +42.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $42.59 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $35.51 (P10) to $48.30 (P90), with a median of $41.70.
EQNR's current P/E of 15.3x compares to the industry median of 15.7x (15 peers in the group). This represents a -2.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.0x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
23 analysts cover EQNR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $82.50 (range: $82.50 — $82.50), implying +176.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (13), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: EQNR trades at the 4670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (13.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EQNR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (27.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 39010.0% to approximately $146. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.