MODEL VERDICT
TotalEnergies SE (TTE) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $80.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $77.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $76.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $74.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $63.93 | Below threshold | +16.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 16 analyst estimates | $84.19 | +4.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 16 industry peers | $89.20 | +11.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 15 industry peers | $96.33 | +19.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 15 industry peers | $61.59 | -23.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 16 industry peers | $88.55 | +10.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 16 industry peers | $55.59 | -30.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 16 industry peers | $114.28 | +42.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 16 industry peers | $94.33 | +17.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 16 industry peers | $98.04 | +22.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 16 industry peers | $63.25 | -21.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $73.27 | -8.8% | 100% | 88 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $56 | $69 | $81 | $94 | $106 |
| Conservative (7%) | $58 | $71 | $83 | $96 | $109 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $60 | $73 | $86 | $99 | $113 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $61 | $75 | $89 | $102 | $116 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.37 | 8.25 | 7.77 | 13.17 | 2.19 |
| EV/EBIT | 6.38 | 5.79 | 4.13 | 9.34 | 2.01 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.05 | 4.51 | 2.96 | 8.72 | 1.84 |
| P/FCF | 11.37 | 8.05 | 5.04 | 27.20 | 7.53 |
| P/FFO | 5.11 | 4.67 | 4.31 | 7.03 | 0.94 |
| P/TBV | 1.53 | 1.51 | 1.23 | 1.93 | 0.25 |
| P/AFFO | 11.59 | 9.35 | 7.26 | 22.63 | 5.39 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.21 | 1.23 | 1.04 | 1.39 | 0.14 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.61 | 0.92 | 0.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates TTE's fair value at $73.27 vs the current price of $80.34, implying -8.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 88/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $73.27 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $66.56 (P10) to $85.30 (P90), with a median of $75.75.
TTE's current P/E of 13.3x compares to the industry median of 16.0x (15 peers in the group). This represents a -16.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.4x over 6 years. Signal: Discount.
33 analysts cover TTE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $75.00 (range: $71.00 — $83.00), implying -6.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (18), Hold (14), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 88/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TTE trades at the 2000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (9.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TTE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (11.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1500.0% to approximately $92. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.