MODEL VERDICT
Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $60.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $63.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $62.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $60.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $60.51 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $67.86 | +13.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $63.95 | +6.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $62.58 | +4.2% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $38.01 | -36.7% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $67.86 | +13.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $70.99 | +18.3% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $19.96 | -66.7% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $52.71 | -12.2% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $63.22 | +5.3% | 100% | 97 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $35 | $49 | $63 | $77 | $91 |
| Conservative (5%) | $36 | $50 | $65 | $79 | $94 |
| Base Case (3.9%) | $36 | $50 | $64 | $78 | $93 |
| Bull Case (5%) | $36 | $50 | $65 | $79 | $94 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.00 | 7.95 | 5.04 | 11.13 | 1.87 |
| EV/EBIT | 6.96 | 6.92 | 4.51 | 9.64 | 1.56 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.07 | 7.16 | 4.57 | 9.76 | 1.58 |
| P/FCF | 7.00 | 7.16 | 5.39 | 8.71 | 1.02 |
| P/FFO | 7.95 | 7.89 | 5.02 | 11.04 | 1.85 |
| P/TBV | 1.24 | 1.20 | 0.94 | 1.72 | 0.26 |
| P/AFFO | 8.00 | 7.96 | 5.04 | 11.10 | 1.86 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.23 | 1.19 | 0.94 | 1.71 | 0.26 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.85 | 4.81 | 4.11 | 5.89 | 0.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates ESNT's fair value at $63.22 vs the current price of $60.03, implying +5.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $63.22 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $57.23 (P10) to $65.74 (P90), with a median of $61.43.
ESNT's current P/E of 8.8x compares to the industry median of 9.9x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -11.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.0x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
19 analysts cover ESNT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $69.33 (range: $63.00 — $75.00), implying +15.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ESNT trades at the 1330th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (8.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ESNT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (62.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 670.0% to approximately $64. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.