MODEL VERDICT
EverQuote, Inc. (EVER) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $15.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $14.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $16.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $25.73 | Pending | -33.4% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $27.74 | Below threshold | -38.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 29 analyst estimates | $19.81 | +27.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 26 industry peers | $21.44 | +38.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 20 industry peers | $18.35 | +18.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 30 industry peers | $22.70 | +46.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 22 industry peers | $14.45 | -6.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 30 industry peers | $20.68 | +33.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 32 industry peers | $33.82 | +118.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 32 industry peers | $23.23 | +50.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 24 industry peers | $22.26 | +43.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 30 industry peers | $22.70 | +46.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $50.14 | +223.7% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $13 | $15 | $16 | $18 | $20 |
| Conservative (7%) | $13 | $15 | $17 | $19 | $21 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $14 | $15 | $17 | $19 | $21 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $14 | $16 | $18 | $20 | $22 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 220.35 | 127.19 | 11.73 | 615.31 | 269.47 |
| P/TBV | 9.29 | 7.53 | 1.64 | 17.65 | 5.93 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.61 | 5.35 | 1.64 | 17.09 | 5.75 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.72 | 1.42 | 0.43 | 3.56 | 1.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates EVER's fair value at $50.14 vs the current price of $15.49, implying +223.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $50.14 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $19.06 (P10) to $88.80 (P90), with a median of $45.89.
EVER's current P/E of 17.6x compares to the industry median of 20.9x (20 peers in the group). This represents a -15.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Discount.
13 analysts cover EVER with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $18.00 (range: $18.00 — $18.00), implying +16.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for EVER.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.