MODEL VERDICT
EverQuote, Inc. (EVER)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $14.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $15.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $16.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $15.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $15.09 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $40.37 | +178.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 3 industry peers | $31.68 | +118.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $53.32 | +268.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $42.64 | +194.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $38.65 | +166.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $51.70 | +256.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $54.19 | +274.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $43.72 | +201.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $53.68 | +270.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $31.64 | +118.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $84.81 | +485.3% | 100% | 76 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 6× (Current) | 8× | 10× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $11 | $11 | $16 | $22 | $27 |
| Conservative (7%) | $11 | $11 | $17 | $22 | $28 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $12 | $12 | $17 | $23 | $29 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $12 | $12 | $18 | $24 | $30 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 178.54 | 105.27 | 11.29 | 615.31 | 251.40 |
| P/TBV | 9.73 | 7.53 | 4.71 | 17.65 | 5.36 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.99 | 5.35 | 4.28 | 17.09 | 5.37 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.87 | 1.46 | 1.09 | 3.56 | 0.97 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates EVER's fair value at $84.81 vs the current price of $14.49, implying +485.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 76/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $84.81 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $38.43 (P10) to $126.47 (P90), with a median of $70.10.
EVER's current P/E of 5.5x compares to the industry median of 20.3x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -72.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover EVER with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $22.75 (range: $18.00 — $28.00), implying +57.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 76/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for EVER.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.