MODEL VERDICT
EVERTEC, Inc. (EVTC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $28.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $27.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $26.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $26.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $30.17 | Pending | -10.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $60.54 | +113.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 55 industry peers | $87069.52 | +307457.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 45 industry peers | $50.77 | +79.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $53354.31 | +188364.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $85041.94 | +300295.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $44635.00 | +157565.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $26.11 | -7.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $69914.88 | +246861.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $73458.07 | +259377.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 50 industry peers | $57.18 | +102.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $54483.23 | +192352.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $41230.13 | +145538.1% | 100% | 84 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $21 | $25 | $30 | $34 | $39 |
| Conservative (6%) | $21 | $26 | $30 | $35 | $40 |
| Base Case (9.1%) | $22 | $27 | $31 | $36 | $41 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $22 | $27 | $32 | $37 | $42 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.51 | 22.62 | 9.39 | 33.83 | 8.32 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.98 | 19.57 | 8.65 | 28.77 | 6.77 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.32 | 13.86 | 1.48 | 14.73 | 4.77 |
| P/FCF | 16.18 | 19.09 | 0.01 | 22.55 | 7.84 |
| P/FFO | 11.09 | 14.58 | 0.00 | 15.80 | 6.00 |
| P/AFFO | 16.18 | 17.59 | 7.57 | 22.40 | 5.97 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.52 | 4.73 | 0.00 | 9.21 | 3.19 |
| Div Yield | 0.99 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 6.88 | 2.60 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.87 | 3.88 | 0.00 | 6.18 | 2.10 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates EVTC's fair value at $41230.13 vs the current price of $28.31, implying +145538.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $41230.13 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $30024.00 (P10) to $52479.76 (P90), with a median of $40760.55.
EVTC's current P/E of 12.8x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -44.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.5x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
18 analysts cover EVTC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $37.00 (range: $35.00 — $39.00), implying +30.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EVTC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (18.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 134210.0% to approximately $408. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.