Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)
Valuation Overview•Is Expand Energy Corporation Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount across both intrinsic cash flow and relative peer multiples, indicating a strong margin of safety.
High-quality fundamentals with a strong composite quality score of 81/100, backed by robust profitability and solvency.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: High-quality compounder, with profitability as the only relative weakness.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
EXE demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company exhibits steady, low-single-digit revenue growth however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 29.0% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.4B | +176.0% | +0.6% | +17.5% | -0.9% | |
| EBITDA | $2.2B | — | -3.2% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $1.2B | +354.8% | -28.3% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $4.81 | +266.4% | -39.0% | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.7B | +22887.5% | -7.2% | +142.3% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 53.4% | 46.1% | 48.6% | 27.5% |
| Operating Margin | 29.0% | 13.0% | 20.8% | -11.7% |
| Net Margin | 22.9% | 9.9% | 31.9% | -9.0% |
| FCF Margin | 20.3% | 7.7% | 11.5% | -0.0% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $3.69 | $3.83 | +3.8% | ||
| Q1'26 | $1.87 | $2.00 | +7.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.90 | $0.97 | +8.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.14 | $1.10 | -3.5% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.91 | $2.02 | +5.8% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.52 | $0.55 | +5.8% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-0.05 | $0.16 | +413.9% | ||
| Q3'24 | $-0.01 | $-1.73 | -15575.8% |
Total return is -25.1% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -45.9%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -18.2% | -25.6% | — |
| 1Y | -25.1% | -45.9% | +2.6% |
| 3YCAGR | +5.8% | -13.1% | +9.7% |
| 5YCAGR | +15.6% | +4.1% | +39.1% |
| 10YCAGR | +9.9% | -3.8% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) valuation, health, and returns.
Expand Energy Corporation is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +291.6% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $340.58)
Expand Energy Corporation has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $340.58 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $132.77 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $134.22 (implying +51.5% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Expand Energy Corporation displays excellent financial health with a composite quality score of 81/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 2.0 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 6.6%.
Expand Energy Corporation pays a 3.6% dividend yield, covered by a 42% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.5% buyback yield.
Expand Energy Corporation's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +176.0% 1Y revenue growth and +266.4% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +0.6%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 20 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 67% of recent quarters with a 3-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +51.5% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Expand Energy Corporation include: -29.2% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.08x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.