MODEL VERDICT
Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $107.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $108.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $104.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $102.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $101.63 | Below threshold | +1.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 44 analyst estimates | $120.45 | +11.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 49 industry peers | $112769.98 | +104394.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 43 industry peers | $105.64 | -2.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 37 industry peers | $67083.68 | +62060.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 42 industry peers | $92174.40 | +85309.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 38 industry peers | $84785.61 | +78463.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 48 industry peers | $124221.56 | +115005.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 48 industry peers | $88183.50 | +81611.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 43 industry peers | $105.58 | -2.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 37 industry peers | $70065.25 | +64823.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $252492.43 | +233862.6% | 100% | 74 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $79 | $94 | $110 | $126 | $142 |
| Conservative (7%) | $81 | $97 | $113 | $129 | $145 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $83 | $100 | $117 | $133 | $150 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $86 | $103 | $120 | $137 | $155 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 5.79 | 3.69 | 1.20 | 14.58 | 6.02 |
| EV/EBIT | 3.19 | 3.73 | 1.43 | 4.42 | 1.57 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.79 | 2.88 | 2.58 | 22.83 | 10.02 |
| P/FCF | 397.34 | 7.23 | 0.01 | 1953.53 | 869.97 |
| P/FFO | 4.26 | 2.06 | 0.01 | 15.40 | 6.32 |
| P/TBV | 0.95 | 1.03 | 0.00 | 1.51 | 0.59 |
| P/AFFO | 2.30 | 1.99 | 0.01 | 5.20 | 2.25 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.95 | 1.03 | 0.00 | 1.51 | 0.59 |
| Div Yield | 5.80 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 28.84 | 12.88 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.47 | 1.20 | 0.00 | 3.70 | 1.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates EXE's fair value at $252492.43 vs the current price of $107.92, implying +233862.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $252492.43 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $46104.33 (P10) to $878819.94 (P90), with a median of $269011.27.
EXE's current P/E of 14.3x compares to the industry median of 14.0x (43 peers in the group). This represents a +2.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 5.8x over 4 years. Signal: Fair Value.
19 analysts cover EXE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $137.80 (range: $123.00 — $150.00), implying +27.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (16), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: EXE trades at the 4880th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (5.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for EXE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.