Expand Energy Corporation (EXEEZ)
Valuation Overview•Is Expand Energy Corporation Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
High-quality fundamentals with a strong composite quality score of 83/100, backed by robust profitability and solvency.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: High-quality compounder, with profitability as the only relative weakness.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral. The company currently dilutes shareholders to fund operations and growth rather than returning capital.
EXEEZ demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($616M) and minimal debt risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-5.0% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 30.2% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.4B | +184.9% | -5.0% | +21.3% | +0.2% | |
| EBITDA | $2.2B | — | -11.7% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $1.2B | +354.8% | -28.3% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $4.81 | +266.4% | -39.0% | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.7B | +61400.0% | -7.2% | +142.3% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 63.1% | 28.3% | 32.6% | 18.8% |
| Operating Margin | 30.2% | 3.4% | 17.1% | 9.3% |
| Net Margin | 22.8% | 12.8% | 32.0% | -9.2% |
| FCF Margin | 21.2% | 8.1% | 11.0% | -0.0% |
Total return is -11.2% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -32.0%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -5.7% | -13.0% | — |
| 1Y | -11.2% | -32.0% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +18.2% | -1.1% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +10.6% | -1.0% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +5.1% | -8.5% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.0x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Expand Energy Corporation (EXEEZ) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, Expand Energy Corporation appears Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers.
Expand Energy Corporation has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $72558.03. A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Expand Energy Corporation displays excellent financial health with a composite quality score of 83/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 0.7 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 9.1%.
Expand Energy Corporation pays a 100.0% dividend yield, covered by a 42% payout ratio with 1 years of growth, supplemented by a N/A buyback yield.
Expand Energy Corporation's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +184.9% 1Y revenue growth and +266.4% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -5.0%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 0 analysts. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for Expand Energy Corporation include: -11.7% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of -0.12x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.