Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL)
Valuation Overview•Is Exelixis, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount across both intrinsic cash flow and relative peer multiples, indicating a strong margin of safety.
High-quality fundamentals with a strong composite quality score of 91/100, backed by robust profitability and solvency.
Analysts remain cautious, with consensus price targets indicating limited room for upside expansion.
Verdict: Elite compounder with fortress-level fundamentals across every core pillar.
Wall Street is cautious, forecasting potential downside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
EXEL exhibits elite business quality, driven by exceptional capital efficiency and highly lucrative margins (highlighted by a massive 32.1% ROIC). This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($309M) and minimal debt risk.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (12.9% 3Y CAGR) paired with highly explosive earnings growth (70.6% EPS 3Y CAGR). This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 39.4% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $610.8M | +7.0% | +12.9% | +18.6% | +51.2% | |
| EBITDA | $251.3M | — | +59.4% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $210.5M | +50.1% | +62.5% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.79 | +58.0% | +70.6% | +51.4% | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $251.8M | +33.2% | +55.6% | +36.4% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 71.6% | 96.3% | 96.3% | 96.5% |
| Operating Margin | 39.4% | 24.9% | 21.5% | 23.0% |
| Net Margin | 35.1% | 23.0% | 19.3% | 21.9% |
| FCF Margin | 38.7% | 25.0% | 22.5% | 36.7% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.77 | $0.87 | +13.7% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.77 | $0.94 | +22.1% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.69 | $0.78 | +13.9% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.65 | $0.75 | +15.4% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.36 | $0.62 | +73.1% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.51 | $0.55 | +7.8% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.35 | $0.40 | +14.3% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.30 | $0.77 | +156.7% |
Total return is +27.4% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +2.4%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +19.1% | +9.8% | — |
| 1Y | +27.4% | +2.4% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +39.9% | +20.9% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +18.3% | +6.4% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +21.1% | +7.7% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL) valuation, health, and returns.
Exelixis, Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Slightly cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +18.7% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $61.64)
Exelixis, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $61.64 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $59.08 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $47.33 (implying -8.8% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Exelixis, Inc. displays excellent financial health with a composite quality score of 91/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 13.7 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 32.1%.
Exelixis, Inc. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 7.2% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by -4.8% in the last 12 months.
Exelixis, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +7.0% 1Y revenue growth and +58.0% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +12.9%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 32 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 83% of recent quarters with a 8-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -8.8% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Exelixis, Inc. include: -25.2% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.77x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.