Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$44.08

→

Intrinsic$57.01

+29%

$38.90$57.01$91.41

Market implies 11% growth for 5 years

Growth 18%

Discount 10%

Terminal 3%

EXEL shows 29% potential upside using 18% growth — reasonable if fundamentals hold.

At $44, the market prices in 11% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (18%).

Range: Bear $39 → Bull $91. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.

Discount ↓Growth →	14%	16%	18%	20%
8%	$69	$75	$81	$88
10%	$49	$53	$57	$62
12%	$37	$40	$44	$47
14%	$30	$33	$35	$38

Bull Case

Bull case ($91) offers 107% upside at 21% growth, 9% discount
23% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
Market-implied growth (11%) ≤ historical CAGR (18%)

Bear Case

Bear case ($39) implies 12% downside at 14% growth, 12% discount

Intrinsic Value vs Current Price

5-Year Cash Flow Projection

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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$744.78M

Year 2$875.21M

Year 3$1.03B

Year 4$1.21B

Year 5$1.42B

Terminal$20.90B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate17.5%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)

Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate

Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate

Base Free Cash Flow$633.79MTTM actual

Bear g×0.8, r+2%

Base Historical CAGR

Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%

ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is EXEL stock undervalued or overvalued?

🟢 UNDERVALUED

EXEL trades at $44.08 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $57.01, implying +31% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 17.5% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of EXEL's future cash flows. The bear case ($38.15) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is EXEL's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $634M, projected at 17.5% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $-27M net debt and dividing by 0.30B shares: Bear $38.15 | Base $57.01 | Bull $84.30. Current price $44.08 implies +31% to base case.

How is EXEL's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 17.5% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($16.86B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 26.6x.

Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL) Intrinsic Value