Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$44.06
→
Intrinsic$111.97
+154%
$76.58$111.97$179.10
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests EXEL could have 154% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $44, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $77 → Bull $179. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $138 | $148 | $160 | $173 |
| 10% | $97 | $104 | $112 | $120 |
| 12% | $74 | $79 | $85 | $92 |
| 14% | $59 | $64 | $69 | $73 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($179) offers 306% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($77) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
Loading charts...
5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.11B
Year 2$1.38B
Year 3$1.73B
Year 4$2.16B
Year 5$2.70B
Terminal$39.71B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$884.27MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.