MODEL VERDICT
Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $44.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $43.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $43.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $42.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $44.04 | Below threshold | -0.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 57 analyst estimates | $84.75 | +92.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 47 industry peers | $64.57 | +46.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 48 industry peers | $60.62 | +37.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 46 industry peers | $83.70 | +90.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 46 industry peers | $77.68 | +76.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 48 industry peers | $77.45 | +75.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 9 industry peers | $151.34 | +243.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $79.25 | +79.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $82.78 | +87.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 47 industry peers | $73.80 | +67.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 47 industry peers | $91.01 | +106.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $82.31 | +86.8% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (21%) | $40 | $47 | $54 | $60 | $67 |
| Conservative (33%) | $44 | $52 | $59 | $67 | $74 |
| Base Case (51.4%) | $51 | $59 | $67 | $76 | $84 |
| Bull Case (69%) | $56 | $66 | $75 | $85 | $94 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 28.61 | 25.39 | 15.77 | 57.34 | 14.68 |
| EV/EBIT | 28.44 | 21.39 | 13.40 | 55.53 | 17.56 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.73 | 17.64 | 13.81 | 51.28 | 14.61 |
| P/FCF | 23.15 | 17.51 | 10.80 | 45.27 | 12.74 |
| P/FFO | 26.48 | 24.08 | 15.22 | 52.78 | 13.14 |
| P/TBV | 3.68 | 3.51 | 2.15 | 5.89 | 1.22 |
| P/AFFO | 34.55 | 30.30 | 17.38 | 70.46 | 19.47 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.57 | 3.40 | 2.09 | 5.72 | 1.18 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.80 | 4.55 | 3.23 | 6.46 | 1.10 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates EXEL's fair value at $82.31 vs the current price of $44.06, implying +86.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $82.31 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $61.19 (P10) to $94.95 (P90), with a median of $77.74.
EXEL's current P/E of 15.8x compares to the industry median of 21.8x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -27.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 28.6x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
32 analysts cover EXEL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $44.40 (range: $30.00 — $54.00), implying +0.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (16), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EXEL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (20.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2290.0% to approximately $54. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.