MODEL VERDICT
ExlService Holdings, Inc. (EXLS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $31.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $30.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $31.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $31.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $29.27 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $20.05 | -36.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $19.50 | -38.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $22.43 | -29.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $20.24 | -36.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $15.31 | -51.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $16.55 | -47.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $61.26 | +93.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $19.87 | -37.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $22.17 | -30.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $22.42 | -29.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $20.15 | -36.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $29.91 | -5.8% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $29 | $32 | $35 | $39 | $42 |
| Conservative (16%) | $30 | $34 | $37 | $41 | $45 |
| Base Case (24.3%) | $33 | $36 | $40 | $44 | $48 |
| Bull Case (33%) | $35 | $39 | $43 | $47 | $51 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 34.82 | 35.62 | 27.56 | 43.21 | 5.81 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.28 | 26.71 | 21.18 | 33.50 | 4.46 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.39 | 19.19 | 16.25 | 22.32 | 2.68 |
| P/FCF | 29.54 | 32.75 | 18.30 | 47.26 | 10.29 |
| P/FFO | 22.15 | 22.24 | 16.39 | 26.49 | 4.20 |
| P/TBV | 15.13 | 15.09 | 9.48 | 23.81 | 5.31 |
| P/AFFO | 27.91 | 26.78 | 22.53 | 32.57 | 4.31 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.23 | 7.15 | 3.60 | 7.84 | 1.76 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.49 | 3.30 | 2.43 | 4.42 | 0.69 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates EXLS's fair value at $29.91 vs the current price of $31.74, implying -5.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $29.91 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $26.13 (P10) to $31.73 (P90), with a median of $28.93.
EXLS's current P/E of 20.6x compares to the industry median of 14.6x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +41.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 34.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
19 analysts cover EXLS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $40.25 (range: $35.00 — $46.00), implying +26.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EXLS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4640.0% to approximately $46. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.