MODEL VERDICT
Extreme Networks, Inc. (EXTR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $22.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $17.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $17.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $17.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $17.37 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $23.79 | +6.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $9.77 | -56.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $24.33 | +9.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $4.56 | -79.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $40.39 | +81.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $28.91 | +29.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $22.60 | +1.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $24.22 | +8.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.37 | -4.1% | 100% | 74 | FAIRLY VALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 372.93 | 55.48 | 30.41 | 1032.89 | 571.68 |
| EV/EBIT | 59.00 | 52.91 | 21.51 | 108.66 | 37.71 |
| EV/EBITDA | 49.54 | 20.41 | 15.11 | 187.82 | 62.96 |
| P/FCF | 24.75 | 17.31 | 10.01 | 57.92 | 17.79 |
| P/FFO | 57.05 | 25.38 | 18.83 | 187.50 | 73.01 |
| P/AFFO | 50.49 | 30.78 | 21.16 | 119.25 | 46.08 |
| P/B Ratio | 51.95 | 33.60 | 7.50 | 152.93 | 50.83 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.66 | 1.93 | 0.87 | 2.20 | 0.55 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates EXTR's fair value at $21.37 vs the current price of $22.29, implying -4.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.37 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.53 (P10) to $29.12 (P90), with a median of $22.02.
EXTR's current P/E of -395.2x compares to the industry median of 49.4x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -899.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 372.9x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
17 analysts cover EXTR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $26.50 (range: $25.00 — $28.00), implying +18.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for EXTR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.